Matchup · Friday, April 17, 2026
Tampa Bay Rays
at Pittsburgh Pirates
6:45 PM ET · 3:45 PM PTPNC Park, Pittsburghopen roof
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Nick Martinez
HR VulnerabilityAverage
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA2.45
WHIP1.23
IP22.0
HR/91.20
K/95.7
xwOBA0.326
Barrel%7.8%
Hard-hit%35.3%
Home Starter · RHP
Bubba Chandler
HR VulnerabilityGood
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA3.15
WHIP1.30
IP20.0
HR/90.90
K/97.7
xwOBA0.368
Barrel%10.8%
Hard-hit%48.6%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Tampa Bay Rays
Junior Caminero
RHB·4 HR / 86 PA·Brl 9.3%
—
Jonathan Aranda
LHB·3 HR / 86 PA·Brl 9.6%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
—
Yandy Díaz
RHB·3 HR / 86 PA·Brl 6.5%
—
Jonny DeLuca
RHB·2 HR / 38 PA·Brl 6.7%
—
Nick Fortes
RHB·1 HR / 55 PA·Brl 2.3%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
—
Richie Palacios
LHB·1 HR / 34 PA·Brl 10.0%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
—
Cedric Mullins
LHB·1 HR / 69 PA·Brl 2.2%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
—
Jake Fraley
LHB·1 HR / 46 PA·Brl 7.1%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
—
Chandler Simpson
LHB·0 HR / 79 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
Hunter Feduccia
LHB·0 HR / 23 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
Ryan Vilade
RHB·0 HR / 24 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
Taylor Walls
SHB·0 HR / 35 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
Home Lineup
Pittsburgh Pirates
Brandon Lowe
LHB·7 HR / 82 PA·Brl 10.4%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
—
Oneil Cruz
LHB·6 HR / 89 PA·Brl 20.0%
vs SP: 2-for-9 · .222 · 0 HR · 4 K · 11 PA
—
Bryan Reynolds
SHB·3 HR / 87 PA·Brl 10.4%
vs SP: 3-for-15 · .200 · 1 HR · 4 K · 15 PA
—
Ryan O'Hearn
LHB·3 HR / 80 PA·Brl 9.4%
—
Joey Bart
RHB·1 HR / 31 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 2-for-13 · .154 · 0 HR · 6 K · 13 PA
—
Marcell Ozuna
RHB·1 HR / 65 PA·Brl 7.3%
vs SP: 4-for-10 · .400 · 2 HR · 1 K · 11 PA
—
Spencer Horwitz
LHB·1 HR / 60 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 7-for-7 · 1.000 · 1 HR · 0 K · 9 PA
—
Henry Davis
RHB·0 HR / 47 PA·Brl 7.1%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 1 PA
—
Jake Mangum
SHB·0 HR / 45 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
Konnor Griffin
RHB·0 HR / 52 PA·Brl 10.3%
—
Billy Cook
RHB·0 HR / 6 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
Nick Gonzales
RHB·0 HR / 65 PA·Brl 2.2%
vs SP: 2-for-11 · .182 · 0 HR · 2 K · 11 PA
—
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.