Matchup · Sunday, April 19, 2026
Detroit Tigers
at Boston Red Sox
4:35 PM EDTFenway Park, Bostonopen roof
The Headline
Dillon Dingler enters this game with a 14.3% model-estimated probability of homering at Fenway Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor95
RHB HR factor99
Probable Starters
Away Starter · LHP
Framber Valdez
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA3.75
WHIP1.29
IP24.0
HR/90.00
K/94.9
xwOBA0.283
Barrel%2.4%
Hard-hit%37.3%
Home Starter · LHP
Garrett Crochet
HR VulnerabilityVulnerable
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA7.58
WHIP1.58
IP19.0
HR/91.40
K/910.4
xwOBA0.361
Barrel%10.2%
Hard-hit%40.7%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Detroit Tigers
Dillon Dingler
RHB·4 HR / 68 PA·Brl 20.5%
14.3%
Kerry Carpenter
LHB·4 HR / 66 PA·Brl 12.9%
13.7%
Wenceel Pérez
SHB·1 HR / 24 PA·Brl 11.8%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
12.6%
Matt Vierling
RHB·1 HR / 31 PA·Brl 4.2%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 0 HR · 3 K · 7 PA
12.3%
Jahmai Jones
RHB·0 HR / 17 PA·Brl 9.1%
11.8%
Riley Greene
LHB·1 HR / 85 PA·Brl 13.5%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 0 HR · 3 K · 7 PA
11.2%
Javier Báez
RHB·1 HR / 58 PA·Brl 2.5%
vs SP: 2-for-5 · .400 · 0 HR · 0 K · 5 PA
11.2%
Jake Rogers
RHB·0 HR / 20 PA·Brl 11.1%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
11.1%
Kevin McGonigle
LHB·1 HR / 90 PA·Brl 9.8%
11.0%
Gleyber Torres
RHB·1 HR / 91 PA·Brl 6.9%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
10.8%
Spencer Torkelson
RHB·0 HR / 77 PA·Brl 7.5%
vs SP: 2-for-4 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 7 PA
10.2%
Colt Keith
LHB·0 HR / 66 PA·Brl 8.9%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.1%
Home Lineup
Boston Red Sox
Willson Contreras
RHB·3 HR / 80 PA·Brl 15.0%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
12.4%
Wilyer Abreu
LHB·3 HR / 79 PA·Brl 13.2%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
10.9%
Marcelo Mayer
LHB·1 HR / 59 PA·Brl 10.3%
10.4%
Ceddanne Rafaela
RHB·1 HR / 65 PA·Brl 7.1%
vs SP: 3-for-5 · .600 · 0 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
10.4%
Roman Anthony
LHB·1 HR / 84 PA·Brl 12.5%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
10.3%
Jarren Duran
LHB·1 HR / 71 PA·Brl 11.4%
10.1%
Trevor Story
RHB·2 HR / 89 PA·Brl 5.3%
vs SP: 3-for-8 · .375 · 0 HR · 3 K · 9 PA
10.1%
Andruw Monasterio
RHB·0 HR / 26 PA·Brl 7.1%
10.0%
Connor Wong
RHB·0 HR / 27 PA·Brl 5.6%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
9.8%
Carlos Narváez
RHB·0 HR / 43 PA·Brl 7.1%
9.7%
Masataka Yoshida
LHB·0 HR / 38 PA·Brl 0.0%
9.5%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
RHB·0 HR / 23 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 4-for-19 · .211 · 0 HR · 1 K · 20 PA
9.3%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.