Matchup · Sunday, April 19, 2026
Kansas City Royals
at New York Yankees
1:35 PM EDTYankee Stadium, Bronxopen roof
The Headline
Ben Rice enters this game with a 18.5% model-estimated probability of homering at Yankee Stadium, one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor120
RHB HR factor105
Probable Starters
Away Starter · LHP
Cole Ragans
HR VulnerabilityVulnerable
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA3.78
WHIP1.38
IP16.2
HR/91.60
K/98.6
xwOBA0.358
Barrel%14.6%
Hard-hit%34.1%
Home Starter · LHP
Ryan Weathers
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA4.29
WHIP1.38
IP21.0
HR/91.70
K/912.0
xwOBA0.375
Barrel%14.5%
Hard-hit%43.6%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Kansas City Royals
Carter Jensen
LHB·5 HR / 66 PA·Brl 13.5%
16.9%
Vinnie Pasquantino
LHB·2 HR / 90 PA·Brl 8.5%
13.8%
Salvador Perez
RHB·3 HR / 81 PA·Brl 10.2%
13.7%
Kyle Isbel
LHB·2 HR / 57 PA·Brl 5.3%
13.1%
Jonathan India
RHB·2 HR / 58 PA·Brl 5.7%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
13.0%
Tyler Tolbert
RHB·0 HR / 5 PA·Brl 0.0%
12.6%
Maikel Garcia
RHB·2 HR / 92 PA·Brl 10.8%
12.5%
Michael Massey
LHB·0 HR / 21 PA·Brl 9.1%
12.5%
Isaac Collins
SHB·1 HR / 53 PA·Brl 11.1%
12.2%
Jac Caglianone
LHB·0 HR / 70 PA·Brl 12.8%
11.8%
Starling Marte
RHB·0 HR / 20 PA·Brl 15.4%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
11.8%
Bobby Witt Jr.
RHB·0 HR / 90 PA·Brl 11.7%
10.8%
Home Lineup
New York Yankees
vs Cole Ragans
Ben Rice
LHB·7 HR / 79 PA·Brl 22.5%
18.5%
Aaron Judge
RHB·8 HR / 90 PA·Brl 27.5%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
17.5%
Trent Grisham
LHB·2 HR / 76 PA·Brl 10.2%
14.4%
Amed Rosario
RHB·3 HR / 45 PA·Brl 12.9%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
13.7%
Paul Goldschmidt
RHB·1 HR / 20 PA·Brl 9.1%
vs SP: 2-for-4 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
13.4%
Ryan McMahon
LHB·1 HR / 52 PA·Brl 11.1%
vs SP: 0-for-5 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 6 PA
13.4%
Austin Wells
LHB·1 HR / 60 PA·Brl 8.1%
13.2%
Giancarlo Stanton
RHB·2 HR / 81 PA·Brl 15.2%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA
12.6%
J.C. Escarra
LHB·0 HR / 20 PA·Brl 0.0%
12.6%
Cody Bellinger
LHB·3 HR / 87 PA·Brl 6.8%
vs SP: 0-for-5 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
12.4%
Randal Grichuk
RHB·0 HR / 22 PA·Brl 44.4%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
11.9%
José Caballero
RHB·1 HR / 74 PA·Brl 4.3%
11.5%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.