Matchup · Monday, April 20, 2026
Houston Astros
at Cleveland Guardians
6:10 PM ET · 3:10 PM PTProgressive Field, Clevelandopen roof
The Headline
Yordan Alvarez enters this game with a 16.8% model-estimated probability of homering at Progressive Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor96
RHB HR factor98
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Spencer Arrighetti
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA1.50
WHIP1.17
IP6.0
HR/90.00
K/915.0
xwOBA0.327
Barrel%9.1%
Hard-hit%27.3%
Home Starter · RHP
Slade Cecconi
HR VulnerabilityVulnerable
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA5.03
WHIP1.37
IP19.2
HR/91.40
K/98.2
xwOBA0.354
Barrel%10.5%
Hard-hit%35.1%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Houston Astros
Yordan Alvarez
LHB·9 HR / 99 PA·Brl 22.7%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 1 PA
16.8%
Christian Walker
RHB·4 HR / 88 PA·Brl 12.9%
14.7%
Christian Vázquez
RHB·2 HR / 37 PA·Brl 3.8%
12.9%
Cam Smith
RHB·3 HR / 88 PA·Brl 17.9%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
12.9%
Brice Matthews
RHB·1 HR / 31 PA·Brl 8.3%
12.9%
Jose Altuve
RHB·3 HR / 94 PA·Brl 8.3%
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 1 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
11.6%
Yainer Diaz
RHB·1 HR / 63 PA·Brl 2.0%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 2 K · 4 PA
11.2%
Carlos Correa
RHB·1 HR / 82 PA·Brl 10.2%
11.1%
Taylor Trammell
LHB·0 HR / 27 PA·Brl 6.3%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA
10.9%
Nick Allen
RHB·0 HR / 22 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
10.7%
Joey Loperfido
LHB·0 HR / 66 PA·Brl 5.0%
9.9%
Isaac Paredes
RHB·0 HR / 70 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
9.8%
Home Lineup
Cleveland Guardians
José Ramírez
SHB·4 HR / 95 PA·Brl 11.8%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
12.9%
Chase DeLauter
LHB·5 HR / 80 PA·Brl 13.6%
12.6%
Brayan Rocchio
SHB·3 HR / 75 PA·Brl 3.6%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
12.5%
Daniel Schneemann
LHB·2 HR / 54 PA·Brl 11.1%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.4%
Angel Martínez
SHB·2 HR / 67 PA·Brl 7.8%
11.8%
Rhys Hoskins
RHB·1 HR / 59 PA·Brl 12.9%
11.2%
Bo Naylor
LHB·1 HR / 49 PA·Brl 14.3%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA
11.1%
Kyle Manzardo
LHB·1 HR / 68 PA·Brl 11.1%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 1 PA
11.1%
George Valera
LHB·0 HR / 14 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.9%
David Fry
RHB·0 HR / 31 PA·Brl 13.3%
10.4%
Austin Hedges
RHB·0 HR / 27 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.3%
Steven Kwan
LHB·1 HR / 93 PA·Brl 1.4%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 5 PA
9.8%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.