Matchup · Tuesday, April 21, 2026
Houston Astros
at Cleveland Guardians
6:10 PM ET · 3:10 PM PTProgressive Field, Clevelandopen roof
The Headline
José Ramírez enters this game with a 15.7% model-estimated probability of homering at Progressive Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor96
RHB HR factor98
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Ryan Weiss
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA6.75
WHIP2.05
IP14.2
HR/92.50
K/911.1
xwOBA0.372
Barrel%11.4%
Hard-hit%54.5%
Home Starter · LHP
Parker Messick
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA1.05
WHIP0.78
IP25.2
HR/90.40
K/98.8
xwOBA0.265
Barrel%3.3%
Hard-hit%29.5%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Houston Astros
Yordan Alvarez
LHB·10 HR / 109 PA·Brl 21.1%
15.4%
Christian Walker
RHB·5 HR / 98 PA·Brl 12.5%
13.7%
Shay Whitcomb
RHB·1 HR / 10 PA·Brl 33.3%
12.3%
Christian Vázquez
RHB·2 HR / 37 PA·Brl 3.8%
11.9%
Brice Matthews
RHB·1 HR / 35 PA·Brl 8.3%
11.8%
Joey Loperfido
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.3%
Nick Allen
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.2%
Cam Smith
RHB·3 HR / 95 PA·Brl 16.9%
11.1%
Isaac Paredes
RHB·2 HR / 79 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.9%
Jose Altuve
RHB·3 HR / 104 PA·Brl 7.7%
10.5%
Yainer Diaz
RHB·1 HR / 72 PA·Brl 3.8%
10.2%
Carlos Correa
RHB·1 HR / 92 PA·Brl 9.5%
10.1%
Home Lineup
Cleveland Guardians
vs Ryan Weiss
José Ramírez
SHB·6 HR / 104 PA·Brl 14.3%
15.7%
Chase DeLauter
LHB·5 HR / 85 PA·Brl 13.6%
13.4%
Daniel Schneemann
LHB·2 HR / 58 PA·Brl 10.8%
13.3%
Brayan Rocchio
SHB·3 HR / 83 PA·Brl 3.4%
13.3%
Angel Martínez
SHB·2 HR / 71 PA·Brl 7.4%
12.6%
Bo Naylor
LHB·1 HR / 53 PA·Brl 14.3%
12.0%
Rhys Hoskins
RHB·1 HR / 68 PA·Brl 11.8%
11.9%
Kyle Manzardo
LHB·1 HR / 73 PA·Brl 11.1%
11.8%
George Valera
LHB·0 HR / 18 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.4%
David Fry
RHB·0 HR / 35 PA·Brl 11.8%
11.1%
Austin Hedges
RHB·0 HR / 31 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.9%
Steven Kwan
LHB·1 HR / 103 PA·Brl 1.3%
10.4%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.