Matchup · Tuesday, April 21, 2026
New York Yankees
at Boston Red Sox
6:45 PM ET · 3:45 PM PTFenway Park, Bostonopen roof
The Headline
Aaron Judge enters this game with a 16.0% model-estimated probability of homering at Fenway Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor95
RHB HR factor99
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Luis Gil
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA7.00
WHIP1.44
IP9.0
HR/94.00
K/97.0
xwOBA0.392
Barrel%14.3%
Hard-hit%50.0%
Home Starter · LHP
Connelly Early
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA2.29
WHIP1.27
IP19.2
HR/90.50
K/99.2
xwOBA0.360
Barrel%13.5%
Hard-hit%38.5%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
New York Yankees
Aaron Judge
RHB·9 HR / 95 PA·Brl 28.3%
16.0%
Ben Rice
LHB·8 HR / 84 PA·Brl 22.2%
15.3%
Amed Rosario
RHB·3 HR / 49 PA·Brl 13.2%
13.1%
Trent Grisham
LHB·3 HR / 81 PA·Brl 11.5%
12.8%
Cody Bellinger
LHB·3 HR / 92 PA·Brl 9.1%
12.0%
Paul Goldschmidt
RHB·1 HR / 25 PA·Brl 21.4%
12.0%
Giancarlo Stanton
RHB·2 HR / 81 PA·Brl 13.7%
11.5%
Ryan McMahon
LHB·1 HR / 56 PA·Brl 10.7%
11.1%
Randal Grichuk
RHB·0 HR / 22 PA·Brl 30.8%
10.9%
Austin Wells
LHB·1 HR / 64 PA·Brl 7.7%
10.7%
J.C. Escarra
LHB·0 HR / 20 PA·Brl 15.4%
10.4%
José Caballero
RHB·1 HR / 78 PA·Brl 3.7%
10.3%
Home Lineup
Boston Red Sox
vs Luis Gil
Willson Contreras
RHB·4 HR / 89 PA·Brl 15.9%
15.4%
Marcelo Mayer
LHB·1 HR / 63 PA·Brl 10.0%
11.9%
Wilyer Abreu
LHB·3 HR / 88 PA·Brl 11.9%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 2 PA
11.7%
Trevor Story
RHB·2 HR / 98 PA·Brl 5.1%
vs SP: 0-for-5 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 6 PA
11.5%
Andruw Monasterio
RHB·0 HR / 30 PA·Brl 5.3%
11.3%
Jarren Duran
LHB·1 HR / 74 PA·Brl 11.4%
vs SP: 3-for-13 · .231 · 0 HR · 4 K · 14 PA
11.2%
Connor Wong
RHB·0 HR / 27 PA·Brl 5.0%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
11.2%
Ceddanne Rafaela
RHB·1 HR / 71 PA·Brl 8.7%
vs SP: 1-for-7 · .143 · 0 HR · 2 K · 8 PA
11.0%
Roman Anthony
LHB·1 HR / 93 PA·Brl 11.5%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
10.9%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
RHB·0 HR / 27 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-8 · .000 · 0 HR · 3 K · 9 PA
10.8%
Carlos Narváez
RHB·0 HR / 50 PA·Brl 6.5%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
10.8%
Masataka Yoshida
LHB·0 HR / 44 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 1-for-10 · .100 · 0 HR · 1 K · 11 PA
10.3%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.