Matchup · Tuesday, April 21, 2026
Pittsburgh Pirates
at Texas Rangers
8:05 PM ET · 5:05 PM PTGlobe Life Field, Arlingtonretractable roof
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Carmen Mlodzinski
HR Vulnerability—
Contact Quality Allowed—
ERA—
WHIP—
IP—
HR/9—
K/9—
xwOBA—
Barrel%undefined%
Hard-hit%undefined%
Home Starter · RHP
Kumar Rocker
HR Vulnerability—
Contact Quality Allowed—
ERA—
WHIP—
IP—
HR/9—
K/9—
xwOBA—
Barrel%undefined%
Hard-hit%undefined%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Pittsburgh Pirates
vs Kumar Rocker
Brandon Lowe
LHB·7 HR / 88 PA·Brl 12.3%
—
Oneil Cruz
LHB·6 HR / 99 PA·Brl 21.1%
—
Ryan O'Hearn
LHB·4 HR / 84 PA·Brl 10.3%
—
Bryan Reynolds
SHB·3 HR / 97 PA·Brl 9.1%
—
Marcell Ozuna
RHB·2 HR / 75 PA·Brl 9.8%
—
Spencer Horwitz
LHB·2 HR / 68 PA·Brl 2.3%
—
Joey Bart
RHB·1 HR / 36 PA·Brl 10.5%
—
Nick Yorke
RHB·1 HR / 67 PA·Brl 6.5%
—
Henry Davis
RHB·0 HR / 51 PA·Brl 5.7%
—
Jake Mangum
SHB·0 HR / 52 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
Konnor Griffin
RHB·0 HR / 62 PA·Brl 10.5%
—
Billy Cook
RHB·0 HR / 8 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
Home Lineup
Texas Rangers
Corey Seager
LHB·5 HR / 92 PA·Brl 16.7%
—
Jake Burger
RHB·5 HR / 93 PA·Brl 11.7%
—
Brandon Nimmo
LHB·4 HR / 101 PA·Brl 13.0%
—
Evan Carter
LHB·2 HR / 79 PA·Brl 10.2%
—
Josh Jung
RHB·2 HR / 76 PA·Brl 1.8%
—
Wyatt Langford
RHB·1 HR / 82 PA·Brl 4.9%
—
Andrew McCutchen
RHB·1 HR / 32 PA·Brl 18.8%
—
Danny Jansen
RHB·1 HR / 54 PA·Brl 6.1%
—
Ezequiel Duran
RHB·1 HR / 49 PA·Brl 5.9%
—
Joc Pederson
LHB·1 HR / 58 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
Kyle Higashioka
RHB·1 HR / 34 PA·Brl 10.0%
—
Sam Haggerty
SHB·0 HR / 14 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.