Matchup · Wednesday, April 22, 2026
Cincinnati Reds
at Tampa Bay Rays
1:10 PM ET · 10:10 AM PTTropicana Field, St. Petersburgdome roof
The Headline
Sal Stewart enters this game with a 16.2% model-estimated probability of homering at Tropicana Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor93
RHB HR factor95
Probable Starters
Away Starter · LHP
Brandon Williamson
HR VulnerabilityAverage
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA4.35
WHIP1.35
IP20.2
HR/91.30
K/95.2
xwOBA0.398
Barrel%11.1%
Hard-hit%41.3%
Home Starter · RHP
Nick Martinez
HR VulnerabilityAverage
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA2.45
WHIP1.23
IP22.0
HR/91.20
K/95.7
xwOBA0.341
Barrel%7.0%
Hard-hit%32.4%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Cincinnati Reds
Sal Stewart
RHB·8 HR / 104 PA·Brl 22.7%
16.2%
H 62·K 58
Elly De La Cruz
SHB·8 HR / 108 PA·Brl 14.5%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
13.8%
H 61·K 63
Tyler Stephenson
RHB·2 HR / 68 PA·Brl 13.5%
vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 1 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.6%
H 60·K 66
Spencer Steer
RHB·4 HR / 83 PA·Brl 16.7%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
12.4%
H 63·K 67
Eugenio Suárez
RHB·3 HR / 96 PA·Brl 9.1%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 1 HR · 2 K · 8 PA
11.7%
H 65·K 62
Rece Hinds
RHB·0 HR / 27 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.9%
H 60·K 60
Dane Myers
RHB·1 HR / 38 PA·Brl 9.1%
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 2 K · 4 PA
10.7%
H 65·K 60
Will Benson
LHB·0 HR / 39 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.6%
H 63·K 60
Ke'Bryan Hayes
RHB·1 HR / 65 PA·Brl 6.0%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.6%
H 57·K 50
Nathaniel Lowe
LHB·0 HR / 30 PA·Brl 5.0%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
10.3%
H 62·K 58
Matt McLain
RHB·0 HR / 103 PA·Brl 8.9%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
9.3%
H 59·K 59
TJ Friedl
LHB·0 HR / 97 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
8.6%
H 56·K 55
Home Lineup
Tampa Bay Rays
Junior Caminero
RHB·5 HR / 106 PA·Brl 9.7%
14.8%
H 68·K 54
Jonny DeLuca
RHB·2 HR / 49 PA·Brl 8.3%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
12.2%
H 65·K 57
Jonathan Aranda
LHB·4 HR / 104 PA·Brl 8.2%
11.6%
H 64·K 62
Richie Palacios
LHB·1 HR / 47 PA·Brl 6.9%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 1 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.4%
H 65·K 51
Cedric Mullins
LHB·2 HR / 85 PA·Brl 3.4%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 1 PA
11.3%
H 59·K 53
Yandy Díaz
RHB·3 HR / 104 PA·Brl 5.4%
11.3%
H 61·K 50
Jake Fraley
LHB·1 HR / 53 PA·Brl 8.6%
11.0%
H 65·K 61
Ryan Vilade
RHB·0 HR / 28 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.9%
H 64·K 59
Nick Fortes
RHB·1 HR / 63 PA·Brl 2.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.8%
H 67·K 53
Hunter Feduccia
LHB·0 HR / 32 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.5%
H 64·K 69
Taylor Walls
SHB·0 HR / 52 PA·Brl 0.0%
9.6%
H 58·K 64
Ben Williamson
RHB·0 HR / 66 PA·Brl 0.0%
9.6%
H 64·K 59
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.