Matchup · Wednesday, April 22, 2026

Houston Astros
at Cleveland Guardians

1:10 PM ET · 10:10 AM PTProgressive Field, Clevelandopen roof

The Headline

Yordan Alvarez enters this game with a 16.6% model-estimated probability of homering at Progressive Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.

Park Factors

LHB HR factor96

RHB HR factor98

Probable Starters

Away Starter · RHP

Peter Lambert

HR VulnerabilityElite

Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled

ERA7.20

WHIP1.60

IP5.0

HR/90.00

K/914.4

xwOBA0.350

Barrel%15.4%

Hard-hit%46.2%

Home Starter · RHP

Tanner Bibee

HR VulnerabilityVulnerable

Contact Quality AllowedLeague average

ERA4.81

WHIP1.52

IP24.1

HR/91.50

K/98.5

xwOBA0.346

Barrel%9.3%

Hard-hit%56.0%

The Lineups

Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.

High

Medium

Low confidence

Away Lineup

Houston Astros

vs Tanner Bibee

Yordan Alvarez

LHB·10 HR / 114 PA·Brl 22.4%

vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA

16.6%

H 71·K 53

Christian Walker

RHB·5 HR / 102 PA·Brl 13.2%

vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 1 HR · 0 K · 6 PA

14.8%

H 61·K 58

Shay Whitcomb

RHB·1 HR / 10 PA·Brl 33.3%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

13.2%

H 63·K 63

Brice Matthews

RHB·1 HR / 39 PA·Brl 6.7%

12.6%

H 63·K 73

Christian Vázquez

RHB·2 HR / 37 PA·Brl 3.8%

vs SP: 3-for-11 · .273 · 0 HR · 2 K · 13 PA

vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 1 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA

11.9%

H 63·K 62

Isaac Paredes

RHB·2 HR / 83 PA·Brl 3.8%

vs SP: 1-for-6 · .167 · 1 HR · 2 K · 6 PA

11.8%

H 62·K 59

Cam Smith

RHB·3 HR / 99 PA·Brl 16.4%

vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 3 K · 5 PA

11.8%

H 64·K 60

Jose Altuve

RHB·3 HR / 109 PA·Brl 8.6%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

11.3%

H 60·K 62

Home Lineup

Cleveland Guardians

vs Peter Lambert

José Ramírez

SHB·6 HR / 109 PA·Brl 13.7%

vs SP: 0-for-0 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA

14.6%

H 64·K 55

Daniel Schneemann

LHB·2 HR / 62 PA·Brl 10.8%

12.5%

H 65·K 71

Brayan Rocchio

SHB·3 HR / 87 PA·Brl 3.2%

12.4%

H 70·K 55

Angel Martínez

SHB·3 HR / 75 PA·Brl 7.4%

11.8%

H 59·K 55

Chase DeLauter

LHB·5 HR / 90 PA·Brl 12.7%

11.8%

H 58·K 55

Bo Naylor

LHB·1 HR / 55 PA·Brl 13.2%

vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 1 PA

11.3%

H 57·K 67

Rhys Hoskins

RHB·1 HR / 68 PA·Brl 10.8%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

11.1%

H 62·K 70

Kyle Manzardo

LHB·1 HR / 78 PA·Brl 10.5%

11.0%

H 62·K 74

George Valera

LHB·0 HR / 23 PA·Brl 0.0%

10.5%

H 64·K 65

David Fry

RHB·0 HR / 35 PA·Brl 11.8%

10.4%

H 64·K 74

Austin Hedges

RHB·0 HR / 33 PA·Brl 0.0%

vs SP: 1-for-6 · .167 · 0 HR · 4 K · 7 PA

10.0%

H 57·K 65

Juan Brito

SHB·0 HR / 45 PA·Brl 3.6%

9.8%

H 57·K 71

A Note on These Numbers

HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.