Matchup · Wednesday, April 22, 2026
San Diego Padres
at Colorado Rockies
8:40 PM ET · 5:40 PM PTCoors Field, Denveropen roof
The Headline
Mickey Moniak enters this game with a 17.0% model-estimated probability of homering at Coors Field, one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor118
RHB HR factor122
Altitude5,200 ft
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Walker Buehler
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA4.58
WHIP1.25
IP17.2
HR/90.50
K/99.2
xwOBA0.318
Barrel%4.2%
Hard-hit%35.4%
Home Starter · RHP
Tomoyuki Sugano
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA3.92
WHIP1.16
IP20.2
HR/92.20
K/96.5
xwOBA0.423
Barrel%19.7%
Hard-hit%48.5%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
San Diego Padres
Ramón Laureano
RHB·4 HR / 89 PA·Brl 15.8%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
15.6%
H 61·K 67
Xander Bogaerts
RHB·3 HR / 92 PA·Brl 7.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
15.2%
H 62·K 51
Ty France
RHB·1 HR / 29 PA·Brl 13.0%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
14.7%
H 70·K 61
Jackson Merrill
LHB·3 HR / 97 PA·Brl 13.4%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
14.6%
H 58·K 63
Gavin Sheets
LHB·2 HR / 73 PA·Brl 10.0%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 1 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
14.6%
H 67·K 56
Manny Machado
RHB·2 HR / 92 PA·Brl 5.6%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
14.3%
H 57·K 58
Luis Campusano
RHB·1 HR / 35 PA·Brl 13.0%
vs SP: 2-for-2 · 1.000 · 1 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
13.8%
H 63·K 64
Bryce Johnson
SHB·0 HR / 18 PA·Brl 0.0%
13.3%
H 64·K 61
Jake Cronenworth
LHB·1 HR / 82 PA·Brl 6.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.7%
H 62·K 58
Nick Castellanos
RHB·0 HR / 47 PA·Brl 6.5%
12.3%
H 59·K 66
Freddy Fermin
RHB·0 HR / 45 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.0%
H 63·K 57
Fernando Tatis Jr.
RHB·0 HR / 99 PA·Brl 14.5%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
11.8%
H 69·K 60
Home Lineup
Colorado Rockies
Mickey Moniak
LHB·6 HR / 63 PA·Brl 14.3%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 4 PA
17.0%
H 66·K 65
Hunter Goodman
RHB·5 HR / 92 PA·Brl 11.1%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
15.9%
H 63·K 73
Jordan Beck
RHB·1 HR / 52 PA·Brl 2.7%
12.6%
H 64·K 63
TJ Rumfield
LHB·3 HR / 90 PA·Brl 7.7%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.5%
H 60·K 56
Brenton Doyle
RHB·1 HR / 73 PA·Brl 4.8%
vs SP: 3-for-7 · .429 · 1 HR · 1 K · 8 PA
12.5%
H 63·K 73
Edouard Julien
LHB·1 HR / 66 PA·Brl 10.3%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
12.4%
H 61·K 63
Troy Johnston
LHB·2 HR / 76 PA·Brl 3.8%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.3%
H 68·K 59
Willi Castro
SHB·1 HR / 70 PA·Brl 7.9%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.1%
H 63·K 73
Brett Sullivan
LHB·0 HR / 34 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.0%
H 64·K 65
Kyle Karros
RHB·1 HR / 78 PA·Brl 8.7%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.8%
H 63·K 53
Ezequiel Tovar
RHB·1 HR / 92 PA·Brl 10.2%
vs SP: 5-for-10 · .500 · 1 HR · 2 K · 11 PA
11.3%
H 58·K 71
Tyler Freeman
RHB·0 HR / 40 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
11.1%
H 62·K 56
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.