Matchup · Wednesday, April 22, 2026
St. Louis Cardinals
at Miami Marlins
12:10 PM ET · 9:10 AM PTloanDepot park, Miamiretractable roof
The Headline
Jordan Walker enters this game with a 15.3% model-estimated probability of homering at loanDepot park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor91
RHB HR factor92
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Kyle Leahy
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA5.21
WHIP1.53
IP19.0
HR/91.90
K/96.2
xwOBA0.372
Barrel%14.3%
Hard-hit%49.2%
Home Starter · RHP
Janson Junk
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA4.50
WHIP1.32
IP22.0
HR/90.80
K/96.1
xwOBA0.302
Barrel%4.3%
Hard-hit%42.9%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
St. Louis Cardinals
vs Janson Junk
Jordan Walker
RHB·8 HR / 98 PA·Brl 23.2%
15.3%
H 63·K 70
Ramón Urías
RHB·2 HR / 47 PA·Brl 13.3%
12.1%
H 63·K 56
Alec Burleson
LHB·3 HR / 103 PA·Brl 12.0%
11.6%
H 66·K 52
José Fermín
RHB·1 HR / 25 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.3%
H 64·K 60
Iván Herrera
RHB·2 HR / 107 PA·Brl 7.7%
11.1%
H 66·K 54
JJ Wetherholt
LHB·3 HR / 106 PA·Brl 6.5%
11.0%
H 63·K 58
Nathan Church
LHB·2 HR / 57 PA·Brl 5.9%
10.9%
H 64·K 62
Nolan Gorman
LHB·3 HR / 84 PA·Brl 4.2%
10.8%
H 59·K 70
Pedro Pagés
RHB·1 HR / 52 PA·Brl 2.9%
10.4%
H 62·K 60
Yohel Pozo
RHB·0 HR / 16 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.4%
H 64·K 60
Masyn Winn
RHB·1 HR / 82 PA·Brl 4.0%
10.0%
H 70·K 58
Thomas Saggese
RHB·0 HR / 51 PA·Brl 3.2%
9.4%
H 58·K 69
Home Lineup
Miami Marlins
vs Kyle Leahy
Otto Lopez
RHB·3 HR / 97 PA·Brl 13.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
12.2%
H 68·K 51
Connor Norby
RHB·2 HR / 85 PA·Brl 8.3%
12.0%
H 60·K 69
Agustín Ramírez
RHB·2 HR / 95 PA·Brl 6.6%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
11.9%
H 58·K 63
Kyle Stowers
LHB·0 HR / 13 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.8%
H 65·K 61
Liam Hicks
LHB·4 HR / 83 PA·Brl 5.9%
11.7%
H 72·K 51
Leo Jiménez
RHB·0 HR / 12 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.4%
H 65·K 61
Owen Caissie
LHB·2 HR / 74 PA·Brl 16.2%
11.2%
H 61·K 70
Austin Slater
RHB·0 HR / 28 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
11.1%
H 63·K 61
Heriberto Hernández
RHB·0 HR / 62 PA·Brl 5.3%
10.2%
H 63·K 60
Graham Pauley
LHB·0 HR / 55 PA·Brl 5.4%
9.8%
H 62·K 60
Javier Sanoja
RHB·0 HR / 54 PA·Brl 2.3%
9.8%
H 65·K 51
Xavier Edwards
SHB·1 HR / 103 PA·Brl 6.8%
9.5%
H 73·K 51
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.