Matchup · Thursday, April 23, 2026
San Diego Padres
at Colorado Rockies
3:10 PM ET · 12:10 PM PTCoors Field, Denveropen roof
The Headline
Mickey Moniak enters this game with a 17.0% model-estimated probability of homering at Coors Field, one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor118
RHB HR factor122
Altitude5,200 ft
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Matt Waldron
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA14.73
WHIP2.45
IP3.2
HR/92.50
K/99.8
xwOBA0.345
Barrel%6.7%
Hard-hit%40.0%
Home Starter · RHP
Ryan Feltner
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA6.00
WHIP1.50
IP18.0
HR/92.50
K/97.0
xwOBA0.405
Barrel%17.2%
Hard-hit%50.0%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
San Diego Padres
vs Ryan Feltner
Ramón Laureano
RHB·4 HR / 94 PA·Brl 15.5%
vs SP: 2-for-2 · 1.000 · 1 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
15.5%
H 60·K 71
Xander Bogaerts
RHB·3 HR / 96 PA·Brl 6.8%
vs SP: 2-for-5 · .400 · 0 HR · 0 K · 6 PA
14.8%
H 67·K 51
Ty France
RHB·1 HR / 29 PA·Brl 13.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
14.4%
H 70·K 61
Manny Machado
RHB·2 HR / 96 PA·Brl 5.4%
vs SP: 2-for-10 · .200 · 1 HR · 4 K · 10 PA
14.2%
H 58·K 62
Gavin Sheets
LHB·2 HR / 77 PA·Brl 9.6%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
14.2%
H 59·K 61
Luis Campusano
RHB·2 HR / 39 PA·Brl 13.0%
vs SP: 2-for-4 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
13.7%
H 63·K 65
Jackson Merrill
LHB·3 HR / 101 PA·Brl 13.4%
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
13.5%
H 58·K 64
Bryce Johnson
SHB·0 HR / 18 PA·Brl 0.0%
13.1%
H 64·K 62
Jake Cronenworth
LHB·1 HR / 86 PA·Brl 5.7%
vs SP: 3-for-8 · .375 · 0 HR · 2 K · 12 PA
12.1%
H 61·K 57
Freddy Fermin
RHB·0 HR / 45 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.8%
H 63·K 58
Nick Castellanos
RHB·0 HR / 51 PA·Brl 6.5%
vs SP: 4-for-12 · .333 · 0 HR · 2 K · 13 PA
11.6%
H 56·K 64
Miguel Andujar
RHB·0 HR / 55 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 3-for-5 · .600 · 0 HR · 0 K · 5 PA
11.5%
H 70·K 58
Home Lineup
Colorado Rockies
vs Matt Waldron
Mickey Moniak
LHB·6 HR / 67 PA·Brl 13.3%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
17.0%
H 68·K 63
Hunter Goodman
RHB·6 HR / 97 PA·Brl 10.4%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
16.9%
H 63·K 73
Brenton Doyle
RHB·1 HR / 74 PA·Brl 4.8%
vs SP: 3-for-9 · .333 · 1 HR · 3 K · 9 PA
13.0%
H 63·K 73
Jordan Beck
RHB·1 HR / 53 PA·Brl 2.6%
vs SP: 3-for-3 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
13.0%
H 62·K 58
TJ Rumfield
LHB·3 HR / 95 PA·Brl 7.5%
13.0%
H 65·K 55
Troy Johnston
LHB·2 HR / 80 PA·Brl 3.6%
12.8%
H 71·K 62
Edouard Julien
LHB·1 HR / 70 PA·Brl 9.8%
vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
12.7%
H 65·K 61
Brett Sullivan
LHB·0 HR / 34 PA·Brl 0.0%
12.5%
H 65·K 65
Willi Castro
SHB·1 HR / 74 PA·Brl 7.7%
vs SP: 2-for-2 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
12.4%
H 63·K 72
Kyle Karros
RHB·1 HR / 82 PA·Brl 8.2%
12.2%
H 64·K 53
Tyler Freeman
RHB·0 HR / 45 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.5%
H 65·K 54
Ezequiel Tovar
RHB·1 HR / 93 PA·Brl 9.8%
vs SP: 1-for-8 · .125 · 0 HR · 3 K · 9 PA
11.4%
H 62·K 68
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.