Matchup · Friday, April 24, 2026
Miami Marlins
at San Francisco Giants
10:15 PM ET · 7:15 PM PTOracle Park, San Franciscoopen roof
The Headline
Heliot Ramos enters this game with a 12.0% model-estimated probability of homering at Oracle Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor85
RHB HR factor93
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Sandy Alcantara
HR VulnerabilityGood
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA2.80
WHIP1.02
IP35.1
HR/91.00
K/95.9
xwOBA0.271
Barrel%4.8%
Hard-hit%37.5%
Home Starter · RHP
Adrian Houser
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA5.40
WHIP1.57
IP21.2
HR/90.80
K/94.6
xwOBA0.359
Barrel%9.8%
Hard-hit%43.9%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Miami Marlins
Otto Lopez
RHB·3 HR / 101 PA·Brl 12.0%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
11.6%
H 64·K 53
Connor Norby
RHB·2 HR / 85 PA·Brl 8.0%
11.4%
H 60·K 67
Agustín Ramírez
RHB·2 HR / 99 PA·Brl 6.1%
11.2%
H 59·K 60
Leo Jiménez
RHB·0 HR / 14 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.8%
H 65·K 59
Kyle Stowers
LHB·0 HR / 13 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.7%
H 66·K 59
Austin Slater
RHB·0 HR / 28 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.5%
H 64·K 59
Liam Hicks
LHB·4 HR / 87 PA·Brl 5.3%
10.5%
H 73·K 49
Owen Caissie
LHB·2 HR / 78 PA·Brl 15.4%
10.0%
H 60·K 68
Heriberto Hernández
RHB·0 HR / 66 PA·Brl 4.7%
9.6%
H 64·K 58
Javier Sanoja
RHB·0 HR / 58 PA·Brl 2.1%
9.2%
H 67·K 49
Jakob Marsee
LHB·1 HR / 114 PA·Brl 2.8%
9.2%
H 64·K 49
Graham Pauley
LHB·0 HR / 57 PA·Brl 5.0%
9.0%
H 63·K 60
Home Lineup
San Francisco Giants
Heliot Ramos
RHB·2 HR / 92 PA·Brl 15.8%
12.0%
H 70·K 64
Willy Adames
RHB·3 HR / 107 PA·Brl 11.9%
vs SP: 2-for-8 · .250 · 0 HR · 3 K · 8 PA
11.9%
H 58·K 64
Casey Schmitt
RHB·2 HR / 77 PA·Brl 13.0%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
11.7%
H 63·K 62
Eric Haase
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.6%
H 63·K 59
Drew Gilbert
LHB·1 HR / 26 PA·Brl 12.5%
11.2%
H 65·K 59
Christian Koss
RHB·0 HR / 7 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.2%
H 63·K 59
Patrick Bailey
SHB·1 HR / 66 PA·Brl 6.5%
10.7%
H 62·K 53
Rafael Devers
LHB·2 HR / 105 PA·Brl 9.0%
vs SP: 1-for-6 · .167 · 0 HR · 2 K · 6 PA
10.4%
H 66·K 67
Jerar Encarnacion
RHB·0 HR / 26 PA·Brl 5.0%
10.4%
H 63·K 59
Matt Chapman
RHB·1 HR / 105 PA·Brl 3.9%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
9.5%
H 65·K 58
Jung Hoo Lee
LHB·1 HR / 96 PA·Brl 1.4%
9.4%
H 67·K 52
Luis Arraez
LHB·0 HR / 101 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 2-for-5 · .400 · 0 HR · 0 K · 6 PA
8.2%
H 65·K 49
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.