Matchup · Saturday, April 25, 2026
Miami Marlins
at San Francisco Giants
4:05 PM ET · 1:05 PM PTOracle Park, San Franciscoopen roof
The Headline
Connor Norby enters this game with a 12.3% model-estimated probability of homering at Oracle Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor85
RHB HR factor93
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Eury Pérez
HR VulnerabilityVulnerable
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA4.15
WHIP1.35
IP26.0
HR/91.40
K/99.4
xwOBA0.344
Barrel%15.5%
Hard-hit%45.1%
Home Starter · LHP
Robbie Ray
HR VulnerabilityVulnerable
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA2.86
WHIP1.09
IP28.1
HR/91.60
K/99.9
xwOBA0.340
Barrel%15.3%
Hard-hit%33.3%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Miami Marlins
vs Robbie Ray
Connor Norby
RHB·3 HR / 90 PA·Brl 8.0%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA
12.3%
H 58·K 74
Austin Slater
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 1-for-9 · .111 · 0 HR · 6 K · 10 PA
12.2%
H 63·K 65
Otto Lopez
RHB·3 HR / 106 PA·Brl 12.0%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
12.1%
H 67·K 61
Liam Hicks
LHB·5 HR / 92 PA·Brl 5.3%
11.9%
H 69·K 55
Agustín Ramírez
RHB·2 HR / 104 PA·Brl 6.1%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
11.8%
H 59·K 62
Leo Jiménez
RHB·0 HR / 14 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 2 PA
11.4%
H 63·K 65
Kyle Stowers
LHB·0 HR / 18 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.2%
H 70·K 65
Owen Caissie
LHB·2 HR / 82 PA·Brl 15.4%
10.5%
H 59·K 74
Heriberto Hernández
RHB·0 HR / 67 PA·Brl 4.7%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 3 K · 3 PA
10.2%
H 62·K 63
Javier Sanoja
RHB·0 HR / 59 PA·Brl 2.1%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
9.8%
H 64·K 55
Jakob Marsee
LHB·1 HR / 120 PA·Brl 2.8%
9.6%
H 60·K 57
Graham Pauley
LHB·0 HR / 61 PA·Brl 5.0%
9.4%
H 61·K 67
Home Lineup
San Francisco Giants
vs Eury Pérez
Heliot Ramos
RHB·2 HR / 96 PA·Brl 15.5%
12.2%
H 70·K 71
Willy Adames
RHB·3 HR / 112 PA·Brl 11.6%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.1%
H 58·K 74
Casey Schmitt
RHB·2 HR / 81 PA·Brl 13.0%
11.9%
H 61·K 63
Eric Haase
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
11.8%
H 64·K 64
Christian Koss
RHB·0 HR / 8 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.4%
H 63·K 64
Drew Gilbert
LHB·1 HR / 29 PA·Brl 11.1%
11.4%
H 63·K 64
Patrick Bailey
SHB·1 HR / 66 PA·Brl 6.1%
10.9%
H 62·K 59
Rafael Devers
LHB·2 HR / 109 PA·Brl 9.0%
10.7%
H 63·K 74
Jerar Encarnacion
RHB·0 HR / 27 PA·Brl 4.8%
10.6%
H 63·K 64
Jung Hoo Lee
LHB·2 HR / 100 PA·Brl 1.3%
10.3%
H 69·K 54
Matt Chapman
RHB·1 HR / 109 PA·Brl 3.8%
vs SP: 2-for-2 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
9.7%
H 64·K 61
Luis Arraez
LHB·0 HR / 106 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
8.4%
H 65·K 54
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.