Matchup · Saturday, April 25, 2026
Minnesota Twins
at Tampa Bay Rays
4:10 PM ET · 1:10 PM PTTropicana Field, St. Petersburgdome roof
The Headline
Junior Caminero enters this game with a 15.8% model-estimated probability of homering at Tropicana Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor93
RHB HR factor95
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Bailey Ober
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA4.15
WHIP1.23
IP26.0
HR/90.70
K/98.3
xwOBA0.315
Barrel%9.1%
Hard-hit%33.8%
Home Starter · LHP
Shane McClanahan
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA5.00
WHIP1.33
IP18.0
HR/90.50
K/99.0
xwOBA0.342
Barrel%12.0%
Hard-hit%44.0%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Minnesota Twins
Byron Buxton
RHB·5 HR / 111 PA·Brl 16.4%
14.5%
H 57·K 72
Tristan Gray
LHB·3 HR / 50 PA·Brl 14.8%
13.7%
H 64·K 73
Brooks Lee
SHB·4 HR / 87 PA·Brl 3.3%
12.9%
H 68·K 58
Ryan Jeffers
RHB·3 HR / 75 PA·Brl 14.9%
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 2 K · 4 PA
12.7%
H 64·K 56
Royce Lewis
RHB·3 HR / 57 PA·Brl 11.1%
12.3%
H 61·K 73
Kody Clemens
LHB·2 HR / 61 PA·Brl 15.6%
12.0%
H 60·K 72
Matt Wallner
LHB·3 HR / 93 PA·Brl 9.3%
11.3%
H 62·K 73
Josh Bell
SHB·3 HR / 101 PA·Brl 8.6%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.2%
H 63·K 54
Austin Martin
RHB·1 HR / 72 PA·Brl 5.0%
10.7%
H 65·K 54
James Outman
LHB·0 HR / 24 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.7%
H 62·K 64
Trevor Larnach
LHB·1 HR / 65 PA·Brl 8.8%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 3 K · 5 PA
10.7%
H 64·K 62
Victor Caratini
SHB·1 HR / 84 PA·Brl 5.1%
10.4%
H 60·K 56
Home Lineup
Tampa Bay Rays
vs Bailey Ober
Junior Caminero
RHB·8 HR / 114 PA·Brl 10.1%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
15.8%
H 69·K 56
Jonathan Aranda
LHB·6 HR / 112 PA·Brl 9.5%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
13.4%
H 64·K 66
Jonny DeLuca
RHB·2 HR / 57 PA·Brl 7.3%
11.1%
H 66·K 57
Richie Palacios
LHB·1 HR / 48 PA·Brl 6.5%
10.9%
H 64·K 54
Cedric Mullins
LHB·2 HR / 89 PA·Brl 3.3%
vs SP: 1-for-11 · .091 · 0 HR · 4 K · 12 PA
10.9%
H 59·K 56
Yandy Díaz
RHB·3 HR / 112 PA·Brl 5.0%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.8%
H 67·K 53
Jake Fraley
LHB·1 HR / 53 PA·Brl 8.6%
vs SP: 2-for-12 · .167 · 0 HR · 4 K · 12 PA
10.7%
H 63·K 64
Ryan Vilade
RHB·0 HR / 31 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
10.5%
H 64·K 61
Nick Fortes
RHB·1 HR / 70 PA·Brl 1.9%
vs SP: 2-for-4 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
10.4%
H 65·K 55
Hunter Feduccia
LHB·0 HR / 32 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.1%
H 63·K 72
Taylor Walls
SHB·0 HR / 58 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 2 PA
9.3%
H 57·K 66
Ben Williamson
RHB·0 HR / 74 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 4-for-7 · .571 · 0 HR · 1 K · 7 PA
9.1%
H 63·K 65
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.