Matchup · Sunday, April 26, 2026
Miami Marlins
at San Francisco Giants
4:05 PM ET · 1:05 PM PTOracle Park, San Franciscoopen roof
The Headline
Casey Schmitt enters this game with a 12.2% model-estimated probability of homering at Oracle Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor85
RHB HR factor93
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Max Meyer
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA3.96
WHIP1.24
IP25.0
HR/90.70
K/910.1
xwOBA0.332
Barrel%8.6%
Hard-hit%38.6%
Home Starter · RHP
Landen Roupp
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA2.28
WHIP1.01
IP27.2
HR/90.00
K/910.1
xwOBA0.262
Barrel%0.0%
Hard-hit%23.8%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Miami Marlins
vs Landen Roupp
Connor Norby
RHB·3 HR / 94 PA·Brl 9.1%
11.6%
H 59·K 73
Otto Lopez
RHB·3 HR / 110 PA·Brl 11.4%
10.9%
H 66·K 60
Austin Slater
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
10.9%
H 62·K 65
Liam Hicks
LHB·5 HR / 93 PA·Brl 6.3%
10.7%
H 64·K 55
Agustín Ramírez
RHB·2 HR / 109 PA·Brl 5.6%
10.5%
H 63·K 64
Leo Jiménez
RHB·0 HR / 17 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.1%
H 62·K 65
Kyle Stowers
LHB·0 HR / 22 PA·Brl 8.3%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
9.9%
H 67·K 65
Owen Caissie
LHB·2 HR / 83 PA·Brl 14.6%
9.4%
H 61·K 75
Heriberto Hernández
RHB·0 HR / 71 PA·Brl 4.5%
9.0%
H 61·K 64
Javier Sanoja
RHB·0 HR / 62 PA·Brl 2.1%
8.7%
H 63·K 55
Jakob Marsee
LHB·1 HR / 122 PA·Brl 2.6%
8.6%
H 63·K 58
Graham Pauley
LHB·0 HR / 61 PA·Brl 4.8%
8.4%
H 61·K 68
Home Lineup
San Francisco Giants
vs Max Meyer
Casey Schmitt
RHB·3 HR / 85 PA·Brl 12.1%
12.2%
H 62·K 61
Heliot Ramos
RHB·3 HR / 100 PA·Brl 15.0%
11.7%
H 66·K 72
Willy Adames
RHB·3 HR / 117 PA·Brl 11.1%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
11.6%
H 57·K 75
Eric Haase
RHB·0 HR / 3 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.2%
H 63·K 65
Christian Koss
RHB·0 HR / 8 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.9%
H 63·K 65
Drew Gilbert
LHB·2 HR / 33 PA·Brl 10.0%
10.8%
H 63·K 65
Patrick Bailey
SHB·1 HR / 70 PA·Brl 6.1%
10.5%
H 61·K 59
Rafael Devers
LHB·2 HR / 113 PA·Brl 8.7%
10.2%
H 57·K 75
Jung Hoo Lee
LHB·2 HR / 104 PA·Brl 1.3%
10.1%
H 70·K 55
Jerar Encarnacion
RHB·0 HR / 27 PA·Brl 4.8%
10.1%
H 63·K 65
Matt Chapman
RHB·1 HR / 114 PA·Brl 3.7%
9.2%
H 61·K 61
Luis Arraez
LHB·0 HR / 111 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 4-for-6 · .667 · 0 HR · 0 K · 6 PA
8.0%
H 68·K 55
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.