Matchup · Tuesday, April 28, 2026

Boston Red Sox
at Toronto Blue Jays

7:07 PM ET · 4:07 PM PTRogers Centre, Torontoretractable roof

The Headline

Willson Contreras enters this game with a 15.6% model-estimated probability of homering at Rogers Centre, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.

Park Factors

LHB HR factor107

RHB HR factor105

Probable Starters

Away Starter · LHP

Payton Tolle

HR VulnerabilityVulnerable

Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression

ERA1.50

WHIP0.67

IP6.0

HR/91.50

K/916.5

xwOBA0.151

Barrel%0.0%

Hard-hit%40.0%

Home Starter · RHP

Trey Yesavage

HR Vulnerability—

Contact Quality Allowed—

ERA—

WHIP—

IP—

HR/9—

K/9—

xwOBA—

Barrel%undefined%

Hard-hit%undefined%

The Lineups

Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.

High

Medium

Low confidence

Away Lineup

Boston Red Sox

vs Trey Yesavage

Willson Contreras

RHB·6 HR / 120 PA·Brl 16.1%

15.6%

H 62·K 72

Carlos Narváez

RHB·2 HR / 64 PA·Brl 7.3%

12.6%

H 68·K 69

Wilyer Abreu

LHB·4 HR / 118 PA·Brl 11.9%

12.6%

H 71·K 53

Andruw Monasterio

RHB·1 HR / 45 PA·Brl 9.1%

11.8%

H 62·K 50

Jarren Duran

LHB·1 HR / 103 PA·Brl 10.8%

11.2%

H 56·K 54

Trevor Story

RHB·2 HR / 123 PA·Brl 3.9%

10.9%

H 59·K 60

Marcelo Mayer

LHB·1 HR / 80 PA·Brl 10.9%

10.8%

H 69·K 46

Roman Anthony

LHB·1 HR / 106 PA·Brl 10.7%

10.7%

H 58·K 56

Connor Wong

RHB·0 HR / 39 PA·Brl 3.6%

10.3%

H 64·K 49

Caleb Durbin

RHB·1 HR / 104 PA·Brl 1.4%

10.3%

H 63·K 46

Isiah Kiner-Falefa

RHB·0 HR / 35 PA·Brl 0.0%

10.2%

H 61·K 53

Masataka Yoshida

LHB·0 HR / 56 PA·Brl 0.0%

10.2%

H 60·K 46

Home Lineup

Toronto Blue Jays

vs Payton Tolle

Kazuma Okamoto

RHB·5 HR / 111 PA·Brl 13.1%

14.8%

H 65·K 67

Jesús Sánchez

LHB·4 HR / 92 PA·Brl 10.6%

14.7%

H 65·K 58

Daulton Varsho

LHB·3 HR / 97 PA·Brl 5.6%

SHB·1 HR / 35 PA·Brl 5.0%

12.2%

H 57·K 72

Myles Straw

RHB·1 HR / 45 PA·Brl 5.6%

11.9%

H 65·K 53

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

RHB·2 HR / 118 PA·Brl 13.8%

11.8%

H 65·K 56

Davis Schneider

RHB·1 HR / 55 PA·Brl 15.4%

11.6%

H 61·K 65

Andrés Giménez

LHB·3 HR / 100 PA·Brl 3.8%

11.5%

H 68·K 53

Eloy Jiménez

RHB·0 HR / 32 PA·Brl 4.5%

10.7%

H 63·K 54

Lenyn Sosa

RHB·0 HR / 63 PA·Brl 4.2%

10.4%

H 60·K 55

Tyler Heineman

SHB·0 HR / 47 PA·Brl 0.0%

10.1%

H 57·K 61

A Note on These Numbers

HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.