Matchup · Tuesday, April 28, 2026
Seattle Mariners
at Minnesota Twins
7:40 PM ET · 4:40 PM PTTarget Field, Minneapolisopen roof
The Headline
Byron Buxton enters this game with a 15.7% model-estimated probability of homering at Target Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor102
RHB HR factor99
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Logan Gilbert
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA4.36
WHIP1.27
IP33.0
HR/90.80
K/99.6
xwOBA0.308
Barrel%7.6%
Hard-hit%46.7%
Home Starter · RHP
Joe Ryan
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA3.90
WHIP1.02
IP32.1
HR/90.80
K/99.2
xwOBA0.277
Barrel%11.2%
Hard-hit%36.0%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Seattle Mariners
vs Joe Ryan
Cal Raleigh
SHB·7 HR / 132 PA·Brl 13.0%
vs SP: 3-for-10 · .300 · 0 HR · 6 K · 10 PA
15.7%
H 67·K 66
Luke Raley
LHB·5 HR / 85 PA·Brl 21.3%
vs SP: 2-for-7 · .286 · 0 HR · 2 K · 7 PA
14.2%
H 62·K 62
Will Wilson
RHB·1 HR / 2 PA·Brl 50.0%
13.6%
H 63·K 64
Rob Refsnyder
RHB·2 HR / 42 PA·Brl 11.5%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
13.4%
H 61·K 54
Dominic Canzone
LHB·3 HR / 68 PA·Brl 16.3%
12.8%
H 64·K 62
Josh Naylor
LHB·3 HR / 117 PA·Brl 6.1%
vs SP: 2-for-13 · .154 · 1 HR · 2 K · 15 PA
12.4%
H 67·K 65
Brendan Donovan
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
12.2%
H 62·K 55
Cole Young
LHB·3 HR / 118 PA·Brl 8.0%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
11.1%
H 67·K 51
Julio Rodríguez
RHB·2 HR / 130 PA·Brl 6.0%
vs SP: 5-for-11 · .455 · 1 HR · 3 K · 13 PA
11.0%
H 61·K 49
Connor Joe
RHB·0 HR / 15 PA·Brl 11.1%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
10.7%
H 62·K 54
Randy Arozarena
RHB·2 HR / 126 PA·Brl 7.4%
vs SP: 4-for-8 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 8 PA
10.5%
H 66·K 55
Mitch Garver
RHB·0 HR / 39 PA·Brl 10.5%
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 1 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
10.4%
H 62·K 70
Home Lineup
Minnesota Twins
Byron Buxton
RHB·6 HR / 120 PA·Brl 15.1%
vs SP: 0-for-7 · .000 · 0 HR · 3 K · 9 PA
15.7%
H 61·K 74
Tristan Gray
LHB·3 HR / 54 PA·Brl 13.3%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 2 PA
13.9%
H 66·K 74
Brooks Lee
SHB·5 HR / 100 PA·Brl 4.3%
13.7%
H 68·K 48
Kody Clemens
LHB·3 HR / 70 PA·Brl 15.8%
13.0%
H 63·K 73
Ryan Jeffers
RHB·3 HR / 88 PA·Brl 15.1%
vs SP: 3-for-8 · .375 · 1 HR · 1 K · 9 PA
12.8%
H 64·K 55
Royce Lewis
RHB·3 HR / 65 PA·Brl 11.1%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
12.3%
H 57·K 63
James Outman
LHB·0 HR / 28 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
10.9%
H 61·K 55
Matt Wallner
LHB·3 HR / 106 PA·Brl 9.6%
10.8%
H 57·K 61
Austin Martin
RHB·1 HR / 76 PA·Brl 4.7%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
10.5%
H 65·K 52
Victor Caratini
SHB·1 HR / 88 PA·Brl 4.8%
vs SP: 2-for-13 · .154 · 1 HR · 1 K · 13 PA
10.5%
H 58·K 60
Trevor Larnach
LHB·1 HR / 74 PA·Brl 7.3%
vs SP: 1-for-8 · .125 · 0 HR · 1 K · 8 PA
10.5%
H 62·K 55
Josh Bell
SHB·3 HR / 114 PA·Brl 9.3%
vs SP: 1-for-10 · .100 · 0 HR · 5 K · 11 PA
10.0%
H 56·K 45
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.