Matchup · Saturday, May 2, 2026
San Francisco Giants
at Tampa Bay Rays
6:10 PM ET · 3:10 PM PTTropicana Field, St. Petersburgdome roof
The Headline
Junior Caminero enters this game with a 15.3% model-estimated probability of homering at Tropicana Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor93
RHB HR factor95
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Landen Roupp
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA2.55
WHIP0.91
IP35.1
HR/90.30
K/99.4
xwOBA0.253
Barrel%0.0%
Hard-hit%25.0%
Home Starter · RHP
Griffin Jax
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA6.35
WHIP1.68
IP11.1
HR/92.40
K/99.5
xwOBA0.357
Barrel%9.4%
Hard-hit%46.9%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
San Francisco Giants
vs Griffin Jax
Casey Schmitt
RHB·4 HR / 105 PA·Brl 14.7%
14.1%
H 69·K 46
Heliot Ramos
RHB·3 HR / 122 PA·Brl 16.2%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
13.4%
H 65·K 58
Drew Gilbert
LHB·2 HR / 47 PA·Brl 5.9%
12.5%
H 64·K 54
Eric Haase
RHB·0 HR / 6 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 3-for-9 · .333 · 0 HR · 2 K · 9 PA
11.9%
H 64·K 55
Christian Koss
RHB·0 HR / 12 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.5%
H 63·K 55
Willy Adames
RHB·3 HR / 132 PA·Brl 9.8%
vs SP: 1-for-8 · .125 · 0 HR · 0 K · 9 PA
11.4%
H 57·K 63
Patrick Bailey
SHB·1 HR / 83 PA·Brl 5.5%
vs SP: 2-for-4 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
11.0%
H 62·K 60
Jerar Encarnacion
RHB·0 HR / 33 PA·Brl 4.3%
10.5%
H 63·K 57
Jung Hoo Lee
LHB·2 HR / 125 PA·Brl 3.1%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.1%
H 70·K 46
Rafael Devers
LHB·2 HR / 132 PA·Brl 7.3%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
10.1%
H 57·K 63
Matt Chapman
RHB·1 HR / 137 PA·Brl 4.5%
vs SP: 1-for-7 · .143 · 0 HR · 3 K · 7 PA
9.3%
H 59·K 60
Luis Arraez
LHB·0 HR / 132 PA·Brl 0.0%
8.4%
H 63·K 46
Home Lineup
Tampa Bay Rays
vs Landen Roupp
Junior Caminero
RHB·9 HR / 134 PA·Brl 10.4%
vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 1 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
15.3%
H 60·K 48
Jonathan Aranda
LHB·7 HR / 133 PA·Brl 11.4%
13.9%
H 57·K 60
Yandy Díaz
RHB·5 HR / 135 PA·Brl 6.1%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
11.4%
H 67·K 47
Jake Fraley
LHB·2 HR / 70 PA·Brl 9.1%
vs SP: 2-for-2 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.8%
H 62·K 63
Jonny DeLuca
RHB·2 HR / 66 PA·Brl 6.1%
10.0%
H 59·K 51
Richie Palacios
LHB·1 HR / 59 PA·Brl 5.4%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
9.9%
H 61·K 56
Ryan Vilade
RHB·0 HR / 38 PA·Brl 0.0%
9.4%
H 62·K 54
Cedric Mullins
LHB·2 HR / 105 PA·Brl 2.7%
9.2%
H 53·K 51
Hunter Feduccia
LHB·0 HR / 38 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
9.0%
H 61·K 64
Nick Fortes
RHB·1 HR / 84 PA·Brl 1.5%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
8.6%
H 62·K 48
Taylor Walls
SHB·0 HR / 75 PA·Brl 0.0%
8.1%
H 60·K 63
Ben Williamson
RHB·0 HR / 92 PA·Brl 0.0%
8.0%
H 63·K 56
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.