Matchup · Monday, May 4, 2026
Toronto Blue Jays
at Tampa Bay Rays
6:40 PM ET · 3:40 PM PTTropicana Field, St. Petersburgdome roof
The Headline
Kazuma Okamoto enters this game with a 16.4% model-estimated probability of homering at Tropicana Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor93
RHB HR factor95
Probable Starters
Away Starter
Starter not yet announced.
Home Starter · RHP
Nick Martinez
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA1.70
WHIP1.00
IP37.0
HR/90.70
K/95.8
xwOBA0.311
Barrel%7.0%
Hard-hit%29.8%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Toronto Blue Jays
Kazuma Okamoto
RHB·9 HR / 138 PA·Brl 14.8%
16.4%
H 66·K 51
Brandon Valenzuela
SHB·3 HR / 47 PA·Brl 10.3%
13.4%
H 63·K 55
Jesús Sánchez
LHB·4 HR / 114 PA·Brl 8.4%
vs SP: 3-for-15 · .200 · 0 HR · 4 K · 16 PA
11.9%
H 61·K 45
Myles Straw
RHB·2 HR / 59 PA·Brl 6.5%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
11.6%
H 65·K 42
Nathan Lukes
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.1%
H 64·K 50
Daulton Varsho
LHB·4 HR / 123 PA·Brl 5.7%
vs SP: 2-for-9 · .222 · 0 HR · 3 K · 9 PA
11.0%
H 64·K 50
George Springer
RHB·2 HR / 75 PA·Brl 7.8%
vs SP: 6-for-17 · .353 · 2 HR · 1 K · 20 PA
11.0%
H 63·K 47
Lenyn Sosa
RHB·1 HR / 77 PA·Brl 7.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.3%
H 64·K 51
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
RHB·2 HR / 145 PA·Brl 11.3%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 1 HR · 0 K · 6 PA
10.2%
H 70·K 42
Davis Schneider
RHB·1 HR / 65 PA·Brl 12.9%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.2%
H 62·K 55
Yohendrick Piñango
LHB·0 HR / 14 PA·Brl 0.0%
9.9%
H 65·K 50
Andrés Giménez
LHB·3 HR / 119 PA·Brl 3.2%
vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
9.6%
H 59·K 47
Home Lineup
Tampa Bay Rays
Junior Caminero
RHB·9 HR / 143 PA·Brl 11.1%
—
Jonathan Aranda
LHB·7 HR / 142 PA·Brl 11.0%
—
Yandy Díaz
RHB·5 HR / 135 PA·Brl 5.9%
—
Jonny DeLuca
RHB·2 HR / 72 PA·Brl 5.5%
—
Cedric Mullins
LHB·2 HR / 113 PA·Brl 2.6%
—
Jake Fraley
LHB·2 HR / 74 PA·Brl 8.5%
—
Nick Fortes
RHB·1 HR / 89 PA·Brl 1.4%
—
Richie Palacios
LHB·1 HR / 63 PA·Brl 5.4%
—
Chandler Simpson
LHB·0 HR / 142 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
Hunter Feduccia
LHB·0 HR / 41 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
Ryan Vilade
RHB·0 HR / 44 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
Taylor Walls
SHB·0 HR / 82 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.