Matchup · Tuesday, May 5, 2026

Cleveland Guardians
at Kansas City Royals

7:40 PM ET · 4:40 PM PTKauffman Stadium, Kansas Cityopen roof

The Headline

Jac Caglianone enters this game with a 15.1% model-estimated probability of homering at Kauffman Stadium, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.

Park Factors

LHB HR factor97

RHB HR factor98

Probable Starters

Away Starter · RHP

Gavin Williams

HR VulnerabilityAverage

Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled

ERA2.70

WHIP1.02

IP43.1

HR/91.30

K/911.0

xwOBA0.308

Barrel%13.3%

Hard-hit%45.7%

Home Starter · RHP

Stephen Kolek

HR Vulnerability—

Contact Quality Allowed—

ERA—

WHIP—

IP—

HR/9—

K/9—

xwOBA—

Barrel%undefined%

Hard-hit%undefined%

The Lineups

Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.

High

Medium

Low confidence

Away Lineup

Cleveland Guardians

vs Stephen Kolek

David Fry

RHB·3 HR / 51 PA·Brl 8.7%

14.5%

H 63·K 60

Daniel Schneemann

LHB·4 HR / 97 PA·Brl 10.9%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA

13.9%

H 60·K 62

Angel Martínez

SHB·5 HR / 113 PA·Brl 9.5%

vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA

13.2%

H 67·K 57

José Ramírez

SHB·6 HR / 157 PA·Brl 10.1%

vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA

12.6%

H 58·K 46

Chase DeLauter

LHB·6 HR / 130 PA·Brl 8.1%

12.1%

H 71·K 46

Rhys Hoskins

RHB·2 HR / 98 PA·Brl 10.4%

vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA

11.3%

H 62·K 58

Kyle Manzardo

LHB·2 HR / 107 PA·Brl 8.2%

vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA

11.1%

H 59·K 62

Bo Naylor

LHB·1 HR / 83 PA·Brl 10.9%

vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA

11.1%

H 56·K 56

Austin Hedges

RHB·1 HR / 46 PA·Brl 0.0%

10.9%

H 64·K 54

Brayan Rocchio

SHB·3 HR / 130 PA·Brl 1.9%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

10.3%

H 65·K 46

Travis Bazzana

LHB·0 HR / 26 PA·Brl 0.0%

10.0%

H 62·K 54

Steven Kwan

LHB·1 HR / 149 PA·Brl 0.9%

vs SP: 2-for-4 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA

8.3%

H 60·K 46

Home Lineup

Kansas City Royals

vs Gavin Williams

Jac Caglianone

LHB·4 HR / 114 PA·Brl 15.6%

vs SP: 1-for-6 · .167 · 0 HR · 3 K · 6 PA

15.1%

H 62·K 66

Carter Jensen

LHB·6 HR / 119 PA·Brl 11.9%

vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 1 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

14.0%

H 56·K 61

Vinnie Pasquantino

LHB·4 HR / 142 PA·Brl 9.8%

vs SP: 1-for-12 · .083 · 1 HR · 2 K · 13 PA

13.7%

H 65·K 56

Salvador Perez

RHB·5 HR / 143 PA·Brl 9.7%

vs SP: 6-for-17 · .353 · 0 HR · 3 K · 18 PA

13.6%

H 61·K 60

Elias Díaz

RHB·1 HR / 12 PA·Brl 20.0%

13.2%

H 62·K 58

Bobby Witt Jr.

RHB·3 HR / 158 PA·Brl 11.0%

vs SP: 3-for-24 · .125 · 0 HR · 5 K · 25 PA

vs SP: 2-for-9 · .222 · 0 HR · 6 K · 11 PA

12.2%

H 62·K 58

Kyle Isbel

LHB·3 HR / 95 PA·Brl 6.2%

vs SP: 3-for-15 · .200 · 0 HR · 5 K · 19 PA

11.1%

H 64·K 60

Lane Thomas

RHB·1 HR / 79 PA·Brl 2.1%

10.8%

H 61·K 49

Maikel Garcia

RHB·3 HR / 145 PA·Brl 7.7%

vs SP: 3-for-20 · .150 · 1 HR · 5 K · 23 PA

10.7%

H 64·K 54

Michael Massey

LHB·1 HR / 67 PA·Brl 6.5%

vs SP: 0-for-11 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 13 PA

10.7%

H 55·K 61

A Note on These Numbers

HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.