Matchup · Tuesday, May 5, 2026
San Diego Padres
at San Francisco Giants
9:45 PM ET · 6:45 PM PTOracle Park, San Franciscoopen roof
The Headline
Casey Schmitt enters this game with a 13.3% model-estimated probability of homering at Oracle Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor85
RHB HR factor93
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Walker Buehler
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA5.40
WHIP1.56
IP25.0
HR/90.40
K/98.6
xwOBA0.346
Barrel%3.9%
Hard-hit%40.8%
Home Starter · RHP
Logan Webb
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA4.30
WHIP1.36
IP44.0
HR/90.60
K/97.8
xwOBA0.332
Barrel%6.1%
Hard-hit%48.5%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
San Diego Padres
vs Logan Webb
Ty France
RHB·3 HR / 56 PA·Brl 14.6%
vs SP: 2-for-9 · .222 · 1 HR · 4 K · 9 PA
12.8%
H 68·K 45
Manny Machado
RHB·5 HR / 134 PA·Brl 7.1%
vs SP: 13-for-43 · .302 · 1 HR · 9 K · 48 PA
12.5%
H 67·K 55
Luis Campusano
RHB·3 HR / 54 PA·Brl 11.4%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 0 K · 5 PA
12.3%
H 69·K 55
Gavin Sheets
LHB·4 HR / 99 PA·Brl 10.1%
vs SP: 7-for-17 · .412 · 0 HR · 2 K · 18 PA
11.3%
H 63·K 52
Xander Bogaerts
RHB·5 HR / 137 PA·Brl 7.1%
vs SP: 6-for-30 · .200 · 0 HR · 6 K · 31 PA
11.2%
H 60·K 55
Ramón Laureano
RHB·5 HR / 136 PA·Brl 13.8%
vs SP: 0-for-7 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 9 PA
11.1%
H 59·K 61
Miguel Andujar
RHB·2 HR / 86 PA·Brl 4.6%
vs SP: 4-for-10 · .400 · 0 HR · 2 K · 10 PA
10.7%
H 67·K 46
Nick Castellanos
RHB·1 HR / 65 PA·Brl 9.1%
vs SP: 4-for-8 · .500 · 1 HR · 2 K · 10 PA
10.0%
H 63·K 56
Jackson Merrill
LHB·4 HR / 140 PA·Brl 9.7%
vs SP: 10-for-15 · .667 · 0 HR · 3 K · 16 PA
9.9%
H 64·K 61
Bryce Johnson
SHB·0 HR / 26 PA·Brl 0.0%
9.7%
H 63·K 53
Fernando Tatis Jr.
RHB·0 HR / 143 PA·Brl 13.2%
vs SP: 8-for-36 · .222 · 1 HR · 9 K · 38 PA
8.6%
H 68·K 55
Freddy Fermin
RHB·0 HR / 68 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 1-for-7 · .143 · 1 HR · 0 K · 7 PA
8.5%
H 57·K 50
Home Lineup
San Francisco Giants
Casey Schmitt
RHB·5 HR / 117 PA·Brl 15.7%
vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
13.3%
H 71·K 48
Heliot Ramos
RHB·3 HR / 134 PA·Brl 15.3%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
11.1%
H 62·K 55
Jerar Encarnacion
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.0%
H 64·K 54
Eric Haase
RHB·0 HR / 10 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
10.4%
H 64·K 54
Christian Koss
RHB·0 HR / 12 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.3%
H 63·K 54
Drew Gilbert
LHB·2 HR / 55 PA·Brl 5.1%
9.9%
H 64·K 50
Patrick Bailey
SHB·1 HR / 86 PA·Brl 5.1%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
9.9%
H 62·K 63
Willy Adames
RHB·3 HR / 144 PA·Brl 8.9%
vs SP: 1-for-8 · .125 · 0 HR · 4 K · 8 PA
9.3%
H 59·K 63
Jung Hoo Lee
LHB·2 HR / 137 PA·Brl 2.9%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
8.5%
H 61·K 46
Rafael Devers
LHB·2 HR / 144 PA·Brl 7.9%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
8.5%
H 66·K 60
Matt Chapman
RHB·1 HR / 145 PA·Brl 4.2%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
8.2%
H 58·K 60
Luis Arraez
LHB·0 HR / 144 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 3-for-10 · .300 · 0 HR · 1 K · 10 PA
7.2%
H 72·K 46
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.