Matchup · Tuesday, May 5, 2026

Toronto Blue Jays
at Tampa Bay Rays

6:40 PM ET · 3:40 PM PTTropicana Field, St. Petersburgdome roof

The Headline

Kazuma Okamoto enters this game with a 17.8% model-estimated probability of homering at Tropicana Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.

Park Factors

LHB HR factor93

RHB HR factor95

Probable Starters

Away Starter · RHP

Kevin Gausman

HR VulnerabilityAverage

Contact Quality AllowedLeague average

ERA3.10

WHIP0.96

IP40.2

HR/91.10

K/98.9

xwOBA0.292

Barrel%9.7%

Hard-hit%38.9%

Home Starter · RHP

Drew Rasmussen

HR VulnerabilityVulnerable

Contact Quality AllowedLeague average

ERA2.64

WHIP0.85

IP30.2

HR/91.50

K/99.4

xwOBA0.258

Barrel%8.2%

Hard-hit%32.9%

The Lineups

Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.

High

Medium

Low confidence

Away Lineup

Toronto Blue Jays

vs Drew Rasmussen

Kazuma Okamoto

RHB·9 HR / 143 PA·Brl 15.7%

17.8%

H 64·K 57

Brandon Valenzuela

SHB·3 HR / 51 PA·Brl 10.0%

14.6%

H 62·K 60

Jesús Sánchez

LHB·4 HR / 118 PA·Brl 8.0%

vs SP: 1-for-7 · .143 · 0 HR · 1 K · 8 PA

12.6%

H 60·K 50

Myles Straw

RHB·2 HR / 63 PA·Brl 6.4%

vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA

11.9%

H 63·K 55

George Springer

RHB·2 HR / 75 PA·Brl 7.8%

vs SP: 2-for-15 · .133 · 1 HR · 2 K · 20 PA

11.8%

H 61·K 52

Daulton Varsho

LHB·4 HR / 127 PA·Brl 6.6%

vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 2 K · 6 PA

11.8%

H 62·K 57

Lenyn Sosa

RHB·1 HR / 77 PA·Brl 6.7%

vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 2 K · 4 PA

11.0%

H 62·K 56

Davis Schneider

RHB·1 HR / 65 PA·Brl 12.9%

vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 1 PA

10.9%

H 60·K 61

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

RHB·2 HR / 149 PA·Brl 11.0%

vs SP: 6-for-24 · .250 · 1 HR · 3 K · 25 PA

10.9%

H 62·K 47

Yohendrick Piñango

LHB·0 HR / 19 PA·Brl 0.0%

10.3%

H 70·K 55

Andrés Giménez

LHB·3 HR / 123 PA·Brl 3.1%

vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 1 PA

9.4%

H 57·K 50

Home Lineup

Tampa Bay Rays

vs Kevin Gausman

Junior Caminero

RHB·9 HR / 147 PA·Brl 10.9%

vs SP: 2-for-8 · .250 · 0 HR · 3 K · 9 PA

16.3%

H 64·K 48

Jonathan Aranda

LHB·7 HR / 146 PA·Brl 10.3%

vs SP: 2-for-5 · .400 · 0 HR · 3 K · 5 PA

14.5%

H 69·K 59

Yandy Díaz

RHB·5 HR / 139 PA·Brl 5.9%

vs SP: 7-for-12 · .583 · 1 HR · 4 K · 14 PA

12.3%

H 65·K 46

Jake Fraley

LHB·2 HR / 74 PA·Brl 8.3%

vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 4 PA

11.7%

H 62·K 63

Ryan Vilade

RHB·1 HR / 46 PA·Brl 0.0%

11.6%

H 63·K 47

Jonny DeLuca

RHB·2 HR / 76 PA·Brl 5.4%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA

10.8%

H 64·K 55

Cedric Mullins

LHB·2 HR / 115 PA·Brl 2.4%

vs SP: 5-for-17 · .294 · 0 HR · 2 K · 17 PA

9.9%

H 54·K 50

Richie Palacios

LHB·1 HR / 63 PA·Brl 5.4%

vs SP: 2-for-5 · .400 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA

9.8%

H 62·K 59

Hunter Feduccia

LHB·0 HR / 41 PA·Brl 0.0%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 2 PA

9.8%

H 63·K 61

Nick Fortes

RHB·1 HR / 92 PA·Brl 1.4%

vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

9.2%

H 58·K 48

Taylor Walls

SHB·0 HR / 85 PA·Brl 0.0%

vs SP: 3-for-9 · .333 · 0 HR · 2 K · 9 PA

8.6%

H 59·K 61

Ben Williamson

RHB·0 HR / 100 PA·Brl 0.0%

vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

8.6%

H 62·K 53

A Note on These Numbers

HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.