Matchup · Friday, April 17, 2026
Kansas City Royals
at New York Yankees
7:05 PM ET · 4:05 PM PTYankee Stadium, Bronxopen roof
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Michael Wacha
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA1.00
WHIP0.78
IP27.0
HR/90.70
K/97.7
xwOBA0.297
Barrel%7.8%
Hard-hit%43.1%
Home Starter · RHP
Cam Schlittler
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA1.95
WHIP0.76
IP27.2
HR/90.00
K/911.7
xwOBA0.214
Barrel%4.0%
Hard-hit%40.0%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Kansas City Royals
Carter Jensen
LHB·4 HR / 62 PA·Brl 13.5%
—
Salvador Perez
RHB·3 HR / 81 PA·Brl 10.5%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
—
Maikel Garcia
RHB·2 HR / 88 PA·Brl 11.1%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
—
Vinnie Pasquantino
LHB·2 HR / 86 PA·Brl 9.1%
—
Jonathan India
RHB·2 HR / 58 PA·Brl 5.9%
—
Kyle Isbel
LHB·2 HR / 54 PA·Brl 5.6%
—
Isaac Collins
SHB·1 HR / 49 PA·Brl 11.1%
—
Lane Thomas
RHB·0 HR / 42 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
—
Michael Massey
LHB·0 HR / 17 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
Bobby Witt Jr.
RHB·0 HR / 87 PA·Brl 10.5%
—
Jac Caglianone
LHB·0 HR / 66 PA·Brl 13.2%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 1 PA
—
Starling Marte
RHB·0 HR / 20 PA·Brl 16.7%
—
Home Lineup
New York Yankees
Aaron Judge
RHB·8 HR / 86 PA·Brl 28.6%
vs SP: 3-for-21 · .143 · 0 HR · 11 K · 24 PA
—
Ben Rice
LHB·6 HR / 74 PA·Brl 21.6%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
—
Trent Grisham
LHB·2 HR / 76 PA·Brl 11.1%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
—
Amed Rosario
RHB·2 HR / 40 PA·Brl 14.3%
vs SP: 2-for-16 · .125 · 0 HR · 2 K · 17 PA
—
Giancarlo Stanton
RHB·2 HR / 76 PA·Brl 15.6%
vs SP: 4-for-17 · .235 · 1 HR · 3 K · 17 PA
—
Austin Wells
LHB·1 HR / 60 PA·Brl 8.6%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
—
Paul Goldschmidt
RHB·1 HR / 20 PA·Brl 9.1%
—
Ryan McMahon
LHB·1 HR / 51 PA·Brl 7.7%
—
José Caballero
RHB·1 HR / 70 PA·Brl 4.4%
vs SP: 2-for-8 · .250 · 0 HR · 4 K · 9 PA
—
Cody Bellinger
LHB·1 HR / 82 PA·Brl 7.1%
vs SP: 3-for-12 · .250 · 1 HR · 5 K · 12 PA
—
J.C. Escarra
LHB·0 HR / 16 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
LHB·0 HR / 78 PA·Brl 4.4%
vs SP: 0-for-6 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 8 PA
—
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.