Matchup · Saturday, April 18, 2026
Cincinnati Reds
at Minnesota Twins
2:10 PM ET · 11:10 AM PTTarget Field, Minneapolisopen roof
The Headline
Sal Stewart enters this game with a 15.6% model-estimated probability of homering at Target Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor102
RHB HR factor99
Probable Starters
Away Starter · LHP
Andrew Abbott
HR VulnerabilityGood
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA5.85
WHIP1.70
IP20.0
HR/90.90
K/95.4
xwOBA0.343
Barrel%8.6%
Hard-hit%35.7%
Home Starter · RHP
Taj Bradley
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA1.25
WHIP1.25
IP21.2
HR/90.00
K/912.1
xwOBA0.292
Barrel%5.6%
Hard-hit%46.3%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Cincinnati Reds
vs Taj Bradley
Sal Stewart
RHB·7 HR / 84 PA·Brl 21.8%
15.6%
Elly De La Cruz
SHB·6 HR / 88 PA·Brl 17.6%
14.1%
Spencer Steer
RHB·3 HR / 68 PA·Brl 15.9%
12.7%
Tyler Stephenson
RHB·2 HR / 51 PA·Brl 13.8%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 2 PA
12.4%
Eugenio Suárez
RHB·3 HR / 78 PA·Brl 10.4%
vs SP: 3-for-8 · .375 · 2 HR · 1 K · 8 PA
12.4%
Rece Hinds
RHB·0 HR / 10 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.0%
Will Benson
LHB·0 HR / 34 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.6%
Nathaniel Lowe
LHB·0 HR / 26 PA·Brl 5.9%
vs SP: 2-for-8 · .250 · 0 HR · 5 K · 8 PA
10.3%
Dane Myers
RHB·0 HR / 27 PA·Brl 5.0%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
10.3%
Ke'Bryan Hayes
RHB·0 HR / 51 PA·Brl 7.0%
9.2%
Matt McLain
RHB·0 HR / 87 PA·Brl 8.0%
9.1%
TJ Friedl
LHB·0 HR / 82 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
8.7%
Home Lineup
Minnesota Twins
Ryan Kreidler
RHB·2 HR / 14 PA·Brl 22.2%
14.2%
Kody Clemens
LHB·2 HR / 39 PA·Brl 26.3%
13.8%
Byron Buxton
RHB·3 HR / 80 PA·Brl 15.1%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 1 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
13.7%
Tristan Gray
LHB·2 HR / 33 PA·Brl 15.0%
13.4%
Matt Wallner
LHB·3 HR / 80 PA·Brl 10.5%
13.0%
Brooks Lee
SHB·3 HR / 61 PA·Brl 4.3%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
12.9%
Josh Bell
SHB·3 HR / 79 PA·Brl 11.8%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 1 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
12.9%
Ryan Jeffers
RHB·2 HR / 59 PA·Brl 12.8%
vs SP: 2-for-2 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.2%
Trevor Larnach
LHB·1 HR / 39 PA·Brl 12.5%
vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
11.9%
James Outman
LHB·0 HR / 20 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.6%
Austin Martin
RHB·1 HR / 56 PA·Brl 6.1%
11.1%
Victor Caratini
SHB·1 HR / 71 PA·Brl 5.9%
vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
10.8%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.