Matchup · Saturday, April 18, 2026
San Francisco Giants
at Washington Nationals
4:05 PM ET · 1:05 PM PTNationals Park, Washingtonopen roof
The Headline
James Wood enters this game with a 15.7% model-estimated probability of homering at Nationals Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor102
RHB HR factor101
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Adrian Houser
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA5.06
WHIP1.56
IP16.0
HR/90.60
K/95.6
xwOBA0.335
Barrel%8.5%
Hard-hit%42.4%
Home Starter · RHP
Cade Cavalli
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA4.60
WHIP1.72
IP15.2
HR/90.00
K/97.5
xwOBA0.352
Barrel%4.3%
Hard-hit%30.4%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
San Francisco Giants
vs Cade Cavalli
Drew Gilbert
LHB·1 HR / 9 PA·Brl 20.0%
12.7%
Willy Adames
RHB·3 HR / 84 PA·Brl 12.3%
12.3%
Rafael Devers
LHB·2 HR / 84 PA·Brl 11.3%
12.2%
Casey Schmitt
RHB·2 HR / 59 PA·Brl 12.5%
11.9%
Christian Koss
RHB·0 HR / 7 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.2%
Heliot Ramos
RHB·1 HR / 73 PA·Brl 8.9%
10.6%
Daniel Susac
RHB·0 HR / 22 PA·Brl 5.3%
10.4%
Jerar Encarnacion
RHB·0 HR / 24 PA·Brl 5.0%
10.4%
Jung Hoo Lee
LHB·1 HR / 78 PA·Brl 1.7%
10.0%
Matt Chapman
RHB·1 HR / 84 PA·Brl 4.8%
9.8%
Patrick Bailey
SHB·0 HR / 50 PA·Brl 5.1%
9.6%
Luis Arraez
LHB·0 HR / 80 PA·Brl 0.0%
8.7%
Home Lineup
Washington Nationals
James Wood
LHB·6 HR / 98 PA·Brl 27.5%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
15.7%
CJ Abrams
LHB·6 HR / 81 PA·Brl 12.5%
vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
15.3%
Joey Wiemer
RHB·2 HR / 46 PA·Brl 8.0%
13.1%
Curtis Mead
RHB·1 HR / 41 PA·Brl 6.3%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.3%
Luis García Jr.
LHB·1 HR / 66 PA·Brl 7.5%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
11.2%
Jacob Young
RHB·2 HR / 57 PA·Brl 6.8%
11.1%
Keibert Ruiz
SHB·1 HR / 41 PA·Brl 5.9%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
11.1%
Brady House
RHB·2 HR / 80 PA·Brl 7.7%
10.8%
José Tena
LHB·0 HR / 33 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.3%
Daylen Lile
LHB·1 HR / 91 PA·Brl 4.2%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
10.2%
Drew Millas
SHB·0 HR / 33 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.1%
Jorbit Vivas
LHB·0 HR / 49 PA·Brl 0.0%
9.8%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.