Matchup · Sunday, April 19, 2026
Chicago White Sox
at Athletics
4:05 PM EDTSutter Health Park, Sacramentoopen roof
The Headline
Munetaka Murakami enters this game with a 14.1% model-estimated probability of homering at Sutter Health Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor100
RHB HR factor102
Probable Starters
Away Starter · LHP
Noah Schultz
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA6.23
WHIP1.62
IP4.1
HR/90.00
K/98.3
xwOBA0.364
Barrel%0.0%
Hard-hit%25.0%
Home Starter · LHP
Jeffrey Springs
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA1.46
WHIP0.77
IP24.2
HR/90.00
K/97.3
xwOBA0.253
Barrel%4.8%
Hard-hit%25.4%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Chicago White Sox
Munetaka Murakami
LHB·7 HR / 88 PA·Brl 23.7%
14.1%
Everson Pereira
RHB·3 HR / 36 PA·Brl 22.2%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
13.5%
Colson Montgomery
LHB·4 HR / 84 PA·Brl 9.5%
12.0%
Tanner Murray
RHB·1 HR / 21 PA·Brl 6.3%
11.9%
Sam Antonacci
LHB·0 HR / 19 PA·Brl 10.0%
10.6%
Miguel Vargas
RHB·2 HR / 87 PA·Brl 11.1%
vs SP: 2-for-7 · .286 · 0 HR · 1 K · 7 PA
10.5%
Derek Hill
RHB·0 HR / 27 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.4%
Reese McGuire
LHB·0 HR / 26 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 4 PA
10.1%
Andrew Benintendi
LHB·1 HR / 65 PA·Brl 12.5%
vs SP: 4-for-8 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 8 PA
9.8%
Tristan Peters
LHB·0 HR / 47 PA·Brl 3.6%
9.4%
Chase Meidroth
RHB·1 HR / 83 PA·Brl 3.8%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
9.2%
Edgar Quero
SHB·0 HR / 57 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
9.2%
Home Lineup
Athletics
vs Noah Schultz
Shea Langeliers
RHB·6 HR / 89 PA·Brl 13.5%
13.6%
Lawrence Butler
LHB·2 HR / 73 PA·Brl 6.7%
12.0%
Tyler Soderstrom
LHB·2 HR / 91 PA·Brl 10.7%
12.0%
Carlos Cortes
LHB·1 HR / 41 PA·Brl 12.9%
11.8%
Max Muncy
RHB·2 HR / 80 PA·Brl 12.5%
11.7%
Zack Gelof
RHB·0 HR / 6 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.7%
Nick Kurtz
LHB·2 HR / 91 PA·Brl 17.1%
11.4%
Andy Ibáñez
RHB·0 HR / 16 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.1%
Austin Wynns
RHB·0 HR / 23 PA·Brl 13.3%
11.1%
Darell Hernaiz
RHB·0 HR / 21 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.0%
Jacob Wilson
RHB·2 HR / 87 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.3%
Denzel Clarke
RHB·0 HR / 58 PA·Brl 3.3%
10.0%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.