Matchup · Monday, April 20, 2026
Athletics
at Seattle Mariners
9:40 PM ET · 6:40 PM PTT-Mobile Park, Seattleretractable roof
The Headline
Luke Raley enters this game with a 13.5% model-estimated probability of homering at T-Mobile Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor92
RHB HR factor89
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
J.T. Ginn
HR VulnerabilityAverage
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA3.31
WHIP0.98
IP16.1
HR/91.10
K/96.1
xwOBA0.282
Barrel%4.4%
Hard-hit%28.9%
Home Starter · RHP
Emerson Hancock
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA2.28
WHIP0.76
IP23.2
HR/90.80
K/99.5
xwOBA0.270
Barrel%9.1%
Hard-hit%30.9%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Athletics
Shea Langeliers
RHB·6 HR / 89 PA·Brl 12.5%
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
12.5%
Nick Kurtz
LHB·2 HR / 91 PA·Brl 18.4%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.8%
Lawrence Butler
LHB·2 HR / 73 PA·Brl 6.3%
vs SP: 0-for-6 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
11.4%
Tyler Soderstrom
LHB·2 HR / 91 PA·Brl 10.0%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 1 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
11.3%
Carlos Cortes
LHB·1 HR / 41 PA·Brl 15.2%
11.2%
Max Muncy
RHB·2 HR / 80 PA·Brl 15.9%
10.8%
Zack Gelof
RHB·0 HR / 6 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.8%
Jacob Wilson
RHB·2 HR / 87 PA·Brl 2.7%
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
10.4%
Andy Ibáñez
RHB·0 HR / 16 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.2%
Austin Wynns
RHB·0 HR / 23 PA·Brl 11.1%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
10.2%
Darell Hernaiz
RHB·0 HR / 21 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.1%
Denzel Clarke
RHB·0 HR / 58 PA·Brl 3.1%
9.2%
Home Lineup
Seattle Mariners
vs J.T. Ginn
Luke Raley
LHB·5 HR / 72 PA·Brl 22.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
13.5%
Brendan Donovan
LHB·3 HR / 71 PA·Brl 4.4%
12.0%
Cal Raleigh
SHB·2 HR / 96 PA·Brl 9.1%
vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
11.6%
Dominic Canzone
LHB·2 HR / 53 PA·Brl 15.8%
11.2%
Josh Naylor
LHB·2 HR / 91 PA·Brl 6.1%
11.2%
Connor Joe
RHB·0 HR / 5 PA·Brl 33.3%
11.1%
Rob Refsnyder
RHB·0 HR / 21 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.7%
Cole Young
LHB·2 HR / 86 PA·Brl 7.5%
10.7%
Mitch Garver
RHB·0 HR / 19 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
10.5%
Randy Arozarena
RHB·1 HR / 93 PA·Brl 6.5%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 3 K · 3 PA
10.4%
Julio Rodríguez
RHB·1 HR / 95 PA·Brl 6.9%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
10.2%
J.P. Crawford
LHB·0 HR / 56 PA·Brl 9.4%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
9.7%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.