Matchup · Monday, April 20, 2026
Baltimore Orioles
at Kansas City Royals
7:40 PM ET · 4:40 PM PTKauffman Stadium, Kansas Cityopen roof
The Headline
Carter Jensen enters this game with a 15.0% model-estimated probability of homering at Kauffman Stadium, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor97
RHB HR factor98
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Kyle Bradish
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA5.49
WHIP1.63
IP19.2
HR/90.50
K/99.6
xwOBA0.282
Barrel%7.0%
Hard-hit%38.6%
Home Starter · RHP
Seth Lugo
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA1.48
WHIP0.99
IP24.1
HR/90.00
K/97.8
xwOBA0.309
Barrel%7.7%
Hard-hit%38.5%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Baltimore Orioles
vs Seth Lugo
Gunnar Henderson
LHB·7 HR / 99 PA·Brl 11.5%
vs SP: 1-for-6 · .167 · 0 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
14.5%
Jeremiah Jackson
RHB·5 HR / 65 PA·Brl 12.8%
14.4%
Samuel Basallo
LHB·3 HR / 64 PA·Brl 10.0%
12.4%
Weston Wilson
RHB·0 HR / 4 PA·Brl 33.3%
11.2%
Sam Huff
RHB·0 HR / 5 PA·Brl 33.3%
11.1%
Pete Alonso
RHB·2 HR / 92 PA·Brl 7.7%
10.9%
Johnathan Rodríguez
RHB·0 HR / 8 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.8%
Leody Taveras
SHB·1 HR / 48 PA·Brl 6.9%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
10.5%
Dylan Beavers
LHB·1 HR / 58 PA·Brl 2.7%
10.4%
Colton Cowser
LHB·0 HR / 53 PA·Brl 9.7%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 1 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
9.9%
Blaze Alexander
RHB·0 HR / 50 PA·Brl 3.3%
9.8%
Coby Mayo
RHB·0 HR / 58 PA·Brl 0.0%
9.4%
Home Lineup
Kansas City Royals
vs Kyle Bradish
Carter Jensen
LHB·5 HR / 66 PA·Brl 15.4%
15.0%
Salvador Perez
RHB·3 HR / 81 PA·Brl 10.2%
12.3%
Jonathan India
RHB·2 HR / 58 PA·Brl 5.7%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
11.8%
Tyler Tolbert
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.7%
Vinnie Pasquantino
LHB·2 HR / 90 PA·Brl 8.1%
11.4%
Elias Díaz
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
11.4%
Maikel Garcia
RHB·2 HR / 92 PA·Brl 10.3%
11.3%
Isaac Collins
SHB·1 HR / 53 PA·Brl 11.1%
10.9%
Kyle Isbel
LHB·2 HR / 57 PA·Brl 5.0%
10.9%
Starling Marte
RHB·0 HR / 20 PA·Brl 15.4%
10.7%
Michael Massey
LHB·0 HR / 21 PA·Brl 7.1%
10.4%
Jac Caglianone
LHB·0 HR / 70 PA·Brl 16.7%
9.9%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.