Matchup · Monday, April 20, 2026
Detroit Tigers
at Boston Red Sox
11:10 AM ET · 8:10 AM PTFenway Park, Bostonopen roof
The Headline
Dillon Dingler enters this game with a 15.0% model-estimated probability of homering at Fenway Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor95
RHB HR factor99
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Jack Flaherty
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA4.05
WHIP1.40
IP20.0
HR/90.50
K/99.5
xwOBA0.344
Barrel%8.0%
Hard-hit%46.0%
Home Starter · RHP
Sonny Gray
HR VulnerabilityAverage
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA4.43
WHIP1.28
IP20.1
HR/91.30
K/94.9
xwOBA0.362
Barrel%11.1%
Hard-hit%36.1%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Detroit Tigers
vs Sonny Gray
Dillon Dingler
RHB·4 HR / 68 PA·Brl 21.7%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
15.0%
Kerry Carpenter
LHB·4 HR / 66 PA·Brl 15.2%
vs SP: 1-for-8 · .125 · 0 HR · 3 K · 8 PA
14.6%
Wenceel Pérez
SHB·1 HR / 24 PA·Brl 10.0%
12.7%
Matt Vierling
RHB·1 HR / 31 PA·Brl 4.2%
vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.6%
Jahmai Jones
RHB·0 HR / 17 PA·Brl 9.1%
11.8%
Riley Greene
LHB·1 HR / 85 PA·Brl 13.2%
vs SP: 2-for-8 · .250 · 0 HR · 6 K · 8 PA
11.5%
Jake Rogers
RHB·0 HR / 20 PA·Brl 15.4%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 3 K · 4 PA
11.3%
Javier Báez
RHB·1 HR / 58 PA·Brl 2.3%
vs SP: 3-for-26 · .115 · 0 HR · 14 K · 27 PA
11.3%
Kevin McGonigle
LHB·1 HR / 90 PA·Brl 10.6%
11.1%
Gleyber Torres
RHB·1 HR / 91 PA·Brl 6.6%
vs SP: 1-for-8 · .125 · 0 HR · 4 K · 9 PA
10.9%
Spencer Torkelson
RHB·0 HR / 77 PA·Brl 7.3%
vs SP: 1-for-10 · .100 · 0 HR · 2 K · 10 PA
10.4%
Colt Keith
LHB·0 HR / 66 PA·Brl 8.3%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
10.1%
Home Lineup
Boston Red Sox
Willson Contreras
RHB·3 HR / 80 PA·Brl 14.6%
vs SP: 6-for-25 · .240 · 1 HR · 12 K · 27 PA
13.2%
Wilyer Abreu
LHB·3 HR / 79 PA·Brl 12.5%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 2 K · 6 PA
11.5%
Ceddanne Rafaela
RHB·1 HR / 65 PA·Brl 6.7%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 1 PA
11.0%
Marcelo Mayer
LHB·1 HR / 59 PA·Brl 10.3%
10.8%
Roman Anthony
LHB·1 HR / 84 PA·Brl 12.0%
10.8%
Trevor Story
RHB·2 HR / 89 PA·Brl 5.2%
vs SP: 2-for-8 · .250 · 0 HR · 3 K · 9 PA
10.8%
Jarren Duran
LHB·1 HR / 71 PA·Brl 11.4%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA
10.5%
Andruw Monasterio
RHB·0 HR / 26 PA·Brl 5.9%
10.4%
Connor Wong
RHB·0 HR / 27 PA·Brl 5.0%
vs SP: 2-for-4 · .500 · 0 HR · 2 K · 4 PA
10.3%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
RHB·0 HR / 23 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 4-for-8 · .500 · 1 HR · 0 K · 9 PA
10.2%
Carlos Narváez
RHB·0 HR / 43 PA·Brl 7.1%
10.1%
Masataka Yoshida
LHB·0 HR / 38 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
9.9%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.