Matchup · Tuesday, April 21, 2026
Athletics
at Seattle Mariners
9:40 PM ET · 6:40 PM PTT-Mobile Park, Seattleretractable roof
The Headline
Luke Raley enters this game with a 13.6% model-estimated probability of homering at T-Mobile Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor92
RHB HR factor89
Probable Starters
Away Starter · LHP
Jacob Lopez
HR VulnerabilityVulnerable
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA6.38
WHIP1.96
IP18.1
HR/91.50
K/97.9
xwOBA0.319
Barrel%5.3%
Hard-hit%29.8%
Home Starter · RHP
Luis Castillo
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA5.40
WHIP1.80
IP18.1
HR/90.50
K/98.4
xwOBA0.370
Barrel%11.1%
Hard-hit%44.4%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Athletics
Nick Kurtz
LHB·3 HR / 100 PA·Brl 17.9%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
12.5%
Carlos Cortes
LHB·2 HR / 48 PA·Brl 14.3%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
12.0%
Shea Langeliers
RHB·7 HR / 98 PA·Brl 12.1%
vs SP: 5-for-20 · .250 · 0 HR · 9 K · 22 PA
11.9%
Darell Hernaiz
RHB·1 HR / 25 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.2%
Tyler Soderstrom
LHB·2 HR / 100 PA·Brl 9.7%
vs SP: 1-for-7 · .143 · 0 HR · 2 K · 8 PA
10.9%
Lawrence Butler
LHB·2 HR / 79 PA·Brl 6.1%
vs SP: 3-for-11 · .273 · 1 HR · 2 K · 11 PA
10.7%
Zack Gelof
RHB·0 HR / 13 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 1-for-6 · .167 · 0 HR · 2 K · 6 PA
10.3%
Austin Wynns
RHB·0 HR / 23 PA·Brl 11.1%
10.2%
Andy Ibáñez
RHB·0 HR / 18 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.1%
Jacob Wilson
RHB·2 HR / 96 PA·Brl 2.5%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
10.1%
Max Muncy
RHB·2 HR / 88 PA·Brl 14.9%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
9.9%
Denzel Clarke
RHB·0 HR / 60 PA·Brl 3.1%
9.2%
Home Lineup
Seattle Mariners
vs Jacob Lopez
Luke Raley
LHB·5 HR / 75 PA·Brl 21.4%
13.6%
Dominic Canzone
LHB·3 HR / 57 PA·Brl 15.8%
12.5%
Cal Raleigh
SHB·3 HR / 105 PA·Brl 8.6%
vs SP: 2-for-2 · 1.000 · 2 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.0%
Rob Refsnyder
RHB·1 HR / 27 PA·Brl 5.9%
12.0%
Brendan Donovan
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.9%
Randy Arozarena
RHB·2 HR / 101 PA·Brl 9.2%
vs SP: 2-for-2 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.5%
Will Wilson
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.4%
Josh Naylor
LHB·2 HR / 95 PA·Brl 6.1%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
11.2%
Connor Joe
RHB·0 HR / 9 PA·Brl 20.0%
11.0%
J.P. Crawford
LHB·1 HR / 65 PA·Brl 14.7%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.7%
Cole Young
LHB·2 HR / 94 PA·Brl 7.1%
10.7%
Mitch Garver
RHB·0 HR / 23 PA·Brl 9.1%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.4%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.