Matchup · Tuesday, April 21, 2026
Baltimore Orioles
at Kansas City Royals
7:40 PM ET · 4:40 PM PTKauffman Stadium, Kansas Cityopen roof
The Headline
Carter Jensen enters this game with a 15.0% model-estimated probability of homering at Kauffman Stadium, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor97
RHB HR factor98
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Shane Baz
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA4.91
WHIP1.55
IP22.0
HR/90.80
K/97.8
xwOBA0.327
Barrel%8.8%
Hard-hit%33.8%
Home Starter · LHP
Kris Bubic
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA3.97
WHIP1.06
IP22.2
HR/90.80
K/910.3
xwOBA0.325
Barrel%13.2%
Hard-hit%47.2%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Baltimore Orioles
vs Kris Bubic
Jeremiah Jackson
RHB·5 HR / 74 PA·Brl 12.2%
14.8%
Gunnar Henderson
LHB·7 HR / 110 PA·Brl 10.9%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 2 K · 5 PA
14.2%
Samuel Basallo
LHB·3 HR / 69 PA·Brl 10.0%
12.8%
Leody Taveras
SHB·2 HR / 54 PA·Brl 6.9%
vs SP: 2-for-2 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.9%
Weston Wilson
RHB·0 HR / 9 PA·Brl 33.3%
11.4%
Sam Huff
RHB·0 HR / 9 PA·Brl 25.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 2 PA
11.3%
Pete Alonso
RHB·2 HR / 101 PA·Brl 7.3%
11.3%
Johnathan Rodríguez
RHB·0 HR / 11 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
11.1%
Dylan Beavers
LHB·1 HR / 65 PA·Brl 2.6%
10.8%
Taylor Ward
RHB·1 HR / 109 PA·Brl 5.6%
vs SP: 2-for-5 · .400 · 1 HR · 2 K · 5 PA
10.5%
Colton Cowser
LHB·0 HR / 56 PA·Brl 9.4%
10.3%
Blaze Alexander
RHB·0 HR / 58 PA·Brl 3.0%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
10.0%
Home Lineup
Kansas City Royals
vs Shane Baz
Carter Jensen
LHB·5 HR / 71 PA·Brl 15.4%
15.0%
Salvador Perez
RHB·3 HR / 91 PA·Brl 9.8%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
12.3%
Tyler Tolbert
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.9%
Jonathan India
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 3-for-10 · .300 · 1 HR · 2 K · 12 PA
11.9%
Elias Díaz
RHB·0 HR / 4 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
11.5%
Vinnie Pasquantino
LHB·2 HR / 100 PA·Brl 7.8%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 0 HR · 2 K · 6 PA
11.3%
Maikel Garcia
RHB·2 HR / 102 PA·Brl 10.0%
vs SP: 3-for-6 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
11.2%
Nick Loftin
RHB·0 HR / 14 PA·Brl 12.5%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
11.0%
Starling Marte
RHB·0 HR / 24 PA·Brl 12.5%
10.8%
Jac Caglianone
LHB·1 HR / 75 PA·Brl 16.7%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
10.5%
Michael Massey
LHB·0 HR / 27 PA·Brl 6.3%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
10.3%
Kyle Isbel
LHB·2 HR / 63 PA·Brl 5.0%
10.2%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.