Matchup · Tuesday, April 21, 2026
Milwaukee Brewers
at Detroit Tigers
6:40 PM ET · 3:40 PM PTComerica Park, Detroitopen roof
The Headline
Gary Sánchez enters this game with a 14.7% model-estimated probability of homering at Comerica Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor92
RHB HR factor94
Probable Starters
Away Starter · LHP
Kyle Harrison
HR VulnerabilityAverage
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA3.07
WHIP1.09
IP14.2
HR/91.20
K/99.2
xwOBA0.307
Barrel%5.1%
Hard-hit%30.8%
Home Starter · RHP
Keider Montero
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA3.31
WHIP0.86
IP16.1
HR/90.00
K/98.3
xwOBA0.221
Barrel%2.2%
Hard-hit%43.5%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Milwaukee Brewers
Gary Sánchez
RHB·5 HR / 56 PA·Brl 20.7%
14.7%
Jake Bauers
LHB·5 HR / 74 PA·Brl 11.5%
13.2%
Brice Turang
LHB·4 HR / 88 PA·Brl 11.8%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
12.6%
Greg Jones
SHB·0 HR / 10 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.5%
Garrett Mitchell
LHB·1 HR / 67 PA·Brl 16.0%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.3%
Luis Matos
RHB·0 HR / 17 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.3%
William Contreras
RHB·2 HR / 84 PA·Brl 6.3%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
10.2%
Blake Perkins
SHB·0 HR / 37 PA·Brl 4.2%
9.5%
Luis Rengifo
SHB·0 HR / 66 PA·Brl 7.8%
9.0%
Joey Ortiz
RHB·0 HR / 58 PA·Brl 5.0%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
9.0%
David Hamilton
LHB·0 HR / 59 PA·Brl 2.7%
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
9.0%
Brandon Lockridge
RHB·0 HR / 62 PA·Brl 2.5%
9.0%
Home Lineup
Detroit Tigers
Dillon Dingler
RHB·5 HR / 78 PA·Brl 23.5%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
14.6%
Kerry Carpenter
LHB·4 HR / 70 PA·Brl 14.7%
14.3%
Jahmai Jones
RHB·1 HR / 21 PA·Brl 14.3%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
12.6%
Wenceel Pérez
SHB·1 HR / 29 PA·Brl 8.7%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 2 PA
11.9%
Hao-Yu Lee
RHB·0 HR / 11 PA·Brl 25.0%
11.8%
Matt Vierling
RHB·1 HR / 40 PA·Brl 3.4%
11.8%
Riley Greene
LHB·1 HR / 94 PA·Brl 12.7%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
11.0%
Jake Rogers
RHB·0 HR / 24 PA·Brl 15.4%
10.7%
Javier Báez
RHB·1 HR / 62 PA·Brl 2.1%
vs SP: 2-for-2 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.7%
Kevin McGonigle
LHB·1 HR / 95 PA·Brl 10.6%
10.7%
Gleyber Torres
RHB·1 HR / 101 PA·Brl 6.3%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
10.2%
Spencer Torkelson
RHB·0 HR / 82 PA·Brl 7.0%
vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
9.9%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.