Matchup · Wednesday, April 22, 2026
Pittsburgh Pirates
at Texas Rangers
8:05 PM ET · 5:05 PM PTGlobe Life Field, Arlingtonretractable roof
The Headline
Brandon Lowe enters this game with a 15.2% model-estimated probability of homering at Globe Life Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor98
RHB HR factor96
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Braxton Ashcraft
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA2.38
WHIP1.06
IP22.2
HR/90.00
K/910.7
xwOBA0.227
Barrel%3.6%
Hard-hit%33.9%
Home Starter · RHP
Jack Leiter
HR VulnerabilityAverage
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA4.87
WHIP1.48
IP20.1
HR/91.30
K/910.6
xwOBA0.366
Barrel%16.1%
Hard-hit%50.0%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Pittsburgh Pirates
vs Jack Leiter
Brandon Lowe
LHB·7 HR / 88 PA·Brl 12.3%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
15.2%
H 65·K 66
Oneil Cruz
LHB·6 HR / 103 PA·Brl 21.1%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
14.4%
H 63·K 73
Ryan O'Hearn
LHB·4 HR / 88 PA·Brl 10.3%
12.9%
H 71·K 61
Spencer Horwitz
LHB·2 HR / 68 PA·Brl 2.3%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.3%
H 63·K 55
Marcell Ozuna
RHB·2 HR / 79 PA·Brl 9.8%
12.2%
H 66·K 71
Joey Bart
RHB·1 HR / 36 PA·Brl 10.5%
vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.1%
H 62·K 74
Bryan Reynolds
SHB·3 HR / 101 PA·Brl 9.1%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.6%
H 58·K 66
Nick Yorke
RHB·1 HR / 71 PA·Brl 6.5%
10.7%
H 59·K 59
Henry Davis
RHB·0 HR / 54 PA·Brl 5.7%
10.4%
H 57·K 66
Konnor Griffin
RHB·0 HR / 65 PA·Brl 10.5%
10.2%
H 62·K 73
Jake Mangum
SHB·0 HR / 56 PA·Brl 0.0%
9.9%
H 70·K 58
Nick Gonzales
RHB·0 HR / 74 PA·Brl 1.9%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
9.6%
H 68·K 62
Home Lineup
Texas Rangers
Jake Burger
RHB·5 HR / 97 PA·Brl 11.7%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 2 PA
12.7%
H 61·K 72
Corey Seager
LHB·5 HR / 96 PA·Brl 16.7%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
12.4%
H 60·K 69
Brandon Nimmo
LHB·4 HR / 106 PA·Brl 13.0%
vs SP: 2-for-2 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.2%
H 62·K 63
Andrew McCutchen
RHB·1 HR / 32 PA·Brl 18.8%
11.2%
H 62·K 75
Evan Carter
LHB·2 HR / 83 PA·Brl 10.2%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.1%
H 59·K 63
Kyle Higashioka
RHB·1 HR / 34 PA·Brl 10.0%
11.0%
H 61·K 69
Josh Jung
RHB·2 HR / 80 PA·Brl 1.8%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
10.8%
H 69·K 55
Joc Pederson
LHB·1 HR / 62 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.5%
H 62·K 74
Danny Jansen
RHB·1 HR / 58 PA·Brl 6.1%
10.3%
H 60·K 75
Sam Haggerty
SHB·0 HR / 14 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-0 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
10.2%
H 62·K 65
Wyatt Langford
RHB·1 HR / 84 PA·Brl 4.9%
10.2%
H 68·K 64
Ezequiel Duran
RHB·1 HR / 51 PA·Brl 5.9%
9.4%
H 68·K 63
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.