Matchup · Thursday, April 23, 2026
Minnesota Twins
at New York Mets
7:10 PM ET · 4:10 PM PTCiti Field, Flushingopen roof
The Headline
Francisco Alvarez enters this game with a 13.3% model-estimated probability of homering at Citi Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor95
RHB HR factor96
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Joe Ryan
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA3.29
WHIP0.88
IP27.1
HR/90.30
K/99.2
xwOBA0.262
Barrel%11.3%
Hard-hit%35.2%
Home Starter · RHP
Christian Scott
HR Vulnerability—
Contact Quality Allowed—
ERA—
WHIP—
IP—
HR/9—
K/9—
xwOBA—
Barrel%undefined%
Hard-hit%undefined%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Minnesota Twins
Byron Buxton
RHB·5 HR / 100 PA·Brl 14.8%
—
Brooks Lee
SHB·3 HR / 78 PA·Brl 3.8%
—
Matt Wallner
LHB·3 HR / 89 PA·Brl 10.0%
—
Josh Bell
SHB·3 HR / 96 PA·Brl 9.7%
—
Royce Lewis
RHB·2 HR / 53 PA·Brl 11.5%
—
Ryan Jeffers
RHB·2 HR / 70 PA·Brl 13.3%
—
Kody Clemens
LHB·2 HR / 52 PA·Brl 19.2%
—
Tristan Gray
LHB·2 HR / 41 PA·Brl 13.0%
—
Austin Martin
RHB·1 HR / 63 PA·Brl 5.6%
—
Luke Keaschall
RHB·1 HR / 101 PA·Brl 3.9%
—
Trevor Larnach
LHB·1 HR / 54 PA·Brl 10.0%
—
Victor Caratini
SHB·1 HR / 80 PA·Brl 5.4%
—
Home Lineup
New York Mets
vs Joe Ryan
Francisco Alvarez
RHB·4 HR / 76 PA·Brl 17.0%
13.3%
H 61·K 57
Juan Soto
LHB·1 HR / 38 PA·Brl 8.0%
vs SP: 0-for-6 · .000 · 0 HR · 3 K · 6 PA
11.6%
H 67·K 58
Hayden Senger
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.3%
H 63·K 64
MJ Melendez
LHB·1 HR / 18 PA·Brl 25.0%
vs SP: 1-for-15 · .067 · 0 HR · 10 K · 19 PA
11.3%
H 62·K 60
Jorge Polanco
SHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 0-for-6 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
11.3%
H 61·K 63
Francisco Lindor
SHB·2 HR / 105 PA·Brl 9.7%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
11.3%
H 67·K 60
Mark Vientos
RHB·2 HR / 64 PA·Brl 4.4%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.0%
H 63·K 63
Tyrone Taylor
RHB·1 HR / 35 PA·Brl 8.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 2 PA
10.9%
H 62·K 62
Tommy Pham
RHB·0 HR / 11 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 3 K · 6 PA
10.6%
H 61·K 63
Luis Torrens
RHB·0 HR / 25 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 2 PA
10.4%
H 60·K 64
Luis Robert Jr.
RHB·2 HR / 90 PA·Brl 3.4%
vs SP: 0-for-9 · .000 · 0 HR · 6 K · 10 PA
10.3%
H 58·K 59
Brett Baty
LHB·0 HR / 72 PA·Brl 8.5%
9.6%
H 62·K 74
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.