Matchup · Thursday, April 23, 2026

New York Yankees
at Boston Red Sox

6:10 PM ET · 3:10 PM PTFenway Park, Bostonopen roof

The Headline

Willson Contreras enters this game with a 12.8% model-estimated probability of homering at Fenway Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.

Park Factors

LHB HR factor95

RHB HR factor99

Probable Starters

Away Starter · RHP

Cam Schlittler

HR VulnerabilityElite

Contact Quality AllowedAbove average

ERA1.95

WHIP0.76

IP27.2

HR/90.00

K/911.7

xwOBA0.243

Barrel%6.1%

Hard-hit%40.9%

Home Starter · LHP

Payton Tolle

HR Vulnerability—

Contact Quality Allowed—

ERA—

WHIP—

IP—

HR/9—

K/9—

xwOBA—

Barrel%undefined%

Hard-hit%undefined%

The Lineups

Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.

High

Medium

Low confidence

Away Lineup

New York Yankees

vs Payton Tolle

Aaron Judge

RHB·9 HR / 104 PA·Brl 26.8%

—

Ben Rice

LHB·8 HR / 90 PA·Brl 22.2%

—

Amed Rosario

RHB·4 HR / 55 PA·Brl 12.2%

—

Giancarlo Stanton

RHB·3 HR / 89 PA·Brl 18.5%

—

Trent Grisham

LHB·3 HR / 83 PA·Brl 11.5%

—

Cody Bellinger

LHB·3 HR / 100 PA·Brl 8.7%

—

Austin Wells

LHB·1 HR / 71 PA·Brl 7.0%

—

Paul Goldschmidt

RHB·1 HR / 29 PA·Brl 21.4%

—

Ryan McMahon

LHB·1 HR / 58 PA·Brl 10.7%

—

José Caballero

RHB·1 HR / 85 PA·Brl 3.6%

—

J.C. Escarra

LHB·0 HR / 20 PA·Brl 15.4%

—

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

LHB·0 HR / 91 PA·Brl 4.0%

—

Home Lineup

Boston Red Sox

vs Cam Schlittler

Willson Contreras

RHB·4 HR / 97 PA·Brl 15.4%

12.8%

H 60·K 74

Marcelo Mayer

LHB·1 HR / 65 PA·Brl 9.1%

10.3%

H 61·K 61

Trevor Story

RHB·2 HR / 106 PA·Brl 4.7%

10.1%

H 55·K 73

Wilyer Abreu

LHB·3 HR / 96 PA·Brl 12.1%

10.1%

H 58·K 65

Jarren Duran

LHB·1 HR / 79 PA·Brl 10.9%

10.1%

H 60·K 75

Connor Wong

RHB·0 HR / 30 PA·Brl 5.0%

9.8%

H 60·K 66

Andruw Monasterio

RHB·0 HR / 35 PA·Brl 5.0%

9.7%

H 61·K 68

Ceddanne Rafaela

RHB·1 HR / 79 PA·Brl 7.8%

9.7%

H 61·K 68

Isiah Kiner-Falefa

RHB·0 HR / 30 PA·Brl 0.0%

9.5%

H 61·K 66

Roman Anthony

LHB·1 HR / 97 PA·Brl 10.9%

9.5%

H 57·K 64

Carlos Narváez

RHB·0 HR / 53 PA·Brl 5.4%

9.4%

H 61·K 72

Masataka Yoshida

LHB·0 HR / 48 PA·Brl 0.0%

9.2%

H 63·K 57

A Note on These Numbers

HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.