Matchup · Thursday, April 23, 2026
Pittsburgh Pirates
at Texas Rangers
8:05 PM ET · 5:05 PM PTGlobe Life Field, Arlingtonretractable roof
The Headline
Brandon Lowe enters this game with a 15.6% model-estimated probability of homering at Globe Life Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor98
RHB HR factor96
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Bubba Chandler
HR VulnerabilityGood
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA3.15
WHIP1.30
IP20.0
HR/90.90
K/97.7
xwOBA0.338
Barrel%7.3%
Hard-hit%40.0%
Home Starter · RHP
Jacob deGrom
HR VulnerabilityVulnerable
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA2.29
WHIP1.07
IP19.2
HR/91.40
K/911.4
xwOBA0.264
Barrel%10.6%
Hard-hit%36.2%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Pittsburgh Pirates
vs Jacob deGrom
Brandon Lowe
LHB·7 HR / 93 PA·Brl 12.3%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 1 HR · 2 K · 6 PA
15.6%
H 65·K 67
Oneil Cruz
LHB·7 HR / 108 PA·Brl 21.7%
vs SP: 3-for-9 · .333 · 1 HR · 4 K · 9 PA
14.8%
H 63·K 74
Ryan O'Hearn
LHB·4 HR / 92 PA·Brl 9.8%
vs SP: 1-for-7 · .143 · 0 HR · 3 K · 9 PA
12.5%
H 63·K 58
Spencer Horwitz
LHB·2 HR / 72 PA·Brl 2.3%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
12.2%
H 62·K 55
Joey Bart
RHB·1 HR / 36 PA·Brl 10.5%
vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
12.0%
H 60·K 75
Marcell Ozuna
RHB·2 HR / 83 PA·Brl 9.4%
vs SP: 10-for-43 · .233 · 1 HR · 16 K · 44 PA
11.9%
H 62·K 67
Bryan Reynolds
SHB·3 HR / 106 PA·Brl 8.9%
vs SP: 2-for-5 · .400 · 0 HR · 2 K · 5 PA
11.4%
H 60·K 66
Nick Yorke
RHB·1 HR / 71 PA·Brl 6.0%
10.6%
H 58·K 60
Henry Davis
RHB·0 HR / 57 PA·Brl 5.4%
10.3%
H 61·K 62
Konnor Griffin
RHB·0 HR / 69 PA·Brl 9.8%
10.0%
H 56·K 75
Jake Mangum
SHB·0 HR / 57 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
9.9%
H 69·K 56
Nick Gonzales
RHB·0 HR / 78 PA·Brl 1.8%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
9.5%
H 65·K 61
Home Lineup
Texas Rangers
Jake Burger
RHB·5 HR / 101 PA·Brl 11.1%
13.5%
H 63·K 68
Corey Seager
LHB·5 HR / 100 PA·Brl 15.8%
13.2%
H 57·K 69
Brandon Nimmo
LHB·4 HR / 110 PA·Brl 12.3%
13.0%
H 63·K 59
Josh Jung
RHB·3 HR / 84 PA·Brl 1.7%
12.1%
H 71·K 52
Alejandro Osuna
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
12.0%
H 63·K 62
Andrew McCutchen
RHB·1 HR / 33 PA·Brl 18.8%
12.0%
H 63·K 72
Wyatt Langford
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.9%
H 63·K 62
Evan Carter
LHB·2 HR / 87 PA·Brl 9.8%
11.9%
H 62·K 60
Kyle Higashioka
RHB·1 HR / 38 PA·Brl 10.0%
11.6%
H 58·K 66
Danny Jansen
RHB·1 HR / 58 PA·Brl 5.7%
vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.9%
H 61·K 71
Sam Haggerty
SHB·0 HR / 15 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.9%
H 63·K 62
Joc Pederson
LHB·1 HR / 65 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.4%
H 63·K 69
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.