Matchup · Sunday, April 26, 2026
Seattle Mariners
at St. Louis Cardinals
2:15 PM ET · 11:15 AM PTBusch Stadium, St. Louisopen roof
The Headline
Jordan Walker enters this game with a 15.3% model-estimated probability of homering at Busch Stadium, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor95
RHB HR factor94
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Emerson Hancock
HR VulnerabilityVulnerable
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA2.83
WHIP0.87
IP28.2
HR/91.60
K/98.8
xwOBA0.313
Barrel%12.5%
Hard-hit%36.1%
Home Starter · RHP
Michael McGreevy
HR VulnerabilityAverage
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA3.29
WHIP0.91
IP27.1
HR/91.30
K/94.9
xwOBA0.395
Barrel%14.1%
Hard-hit%36.5%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Seattle Mariners
Cal Raleigh
SHB·5 HR / 124 PA·Brl 12.7%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
14.6%
H 67·K 57
Luke Raley
LHB·5 HR / 82 PA·Brl 22.7%
13.9%
H 66·K 67
Dominic Canzone
LHB·3 HR / 65 PA·Brl 17.8%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.7%
H 65·K 59
Josh Naylor
LHB·3 HR / 113 PA·Brl 6.4%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
12.2%
H 69·K 59
Brendan Donovan
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
12.1%
H 65·K 58
Rob Refsnyder
RHB·1 HR / 37 PA·Brl 8.7%
12.0%
H 63·K 58
Will Wilson
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.8%
H 65·K 58
Randy Arozarena
RHB·2 HR / 118 PA·Brl 8.0%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
11.7%
H 66·K 56
Connor Joe
RHB·0 HR / 11 PA·Brl 20.0%
11.3%
H 64·K 58
J.P. Crawford
LHB·1 HR / 83 PA·Brl 10.6%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.7%
H 59·K 51
Julio Rodríguez
RHB·2 HR / 122 PA·Brl 5.3%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
10.7%
H 70·K 56
Mitch Garver
RHB·0 HR / 34 PA·Brl 6.7%
10.5%
H 64·K 64
Home Lineup
St. Louis Cardinals
Jordan Walker
RHB·8 HR / 107 PA·Brl 21.7%
15.3%
H 59·K 74
Nathan Church
LHB·4 HR / 70 PA·Brl 4.7%
13.7%
H 67·K 63
Iván Herrera
RHB·4 HR / 120 PA·Brl 9.3%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
13.2%
H 67·K 57
JJ Wetherholt
LHB·4 HR / 119 PA·Brl 5.7%
12.0%
H 62·K 61
Alec Burleson
LHB·3 HR / 112 PA·Brl 11.3%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
11.8%
H 58·K 58
Ramón Urías
RHB·2 HR / 55 PA·Brl 10.8%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
11.4%
H 61·K 54
José Fermín
RHB·1 HR / 32 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.1%
H 62·K 64
Pedro Pagés
RHB·2 HR / 59 PA·Brl 5.1%
11.1%
H 61·K 66
Nolan Gorman
LHB·3 HR / 97 PA·Brl 5.3%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
10.9%
H 60·K 71
Yohel Pozo
RHB·0 HR / 16 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.5%
H 62·K 64
Masyn Winn
RHB·1 HR / 91 PA·Brl 3.5%
9.9%
H 69·K 64
Thomas Saggese
RHB·0 HR / 54 PA·Brl 3.0%
9.5%
H 56·K 72
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.