Matchup · Tuesday, April 28, 2026
New York Yankees
at Texas Rangers
8:05 PM ET · 5:05 PM PTGlobe Life Field, Arlingtonretractable roof
The Headline
Aaron Judge enters this game with a 17.0% model-estimated probability of homering at Globe Life Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor98
RHB HR factor96
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Cam Schlittler
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA1.77
WHIP0.73
IP35.2
HR/90.30
K/910.4
xwOBA0.244
Barrel%6.8%
Hard-hit%38.6%
Home Starter · RHP
Jacob deGrom
HR VulnerabilityVulnerable
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA2.13
WHIP1.07
IP25.1
HR/91.40
K/912.4
xwOBA0.277
Barrel%10.2%
Hard-hit%39.0%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
New York Yankees
vs Jacob deGrom
Aaron Judge
RHB·11 HR / 127 PA·Brl 24.2%
vs SP: 1-for-7 · .143 · 0 HR · 2 K · 11 PA
17.0%
H 61·K 70
Ben Rice
LHB·10 HR / 114 PA·Brl 22.4%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA
17.0%
H 70·K 69
Trent Grisham
LHB·4 HR / 106 PA·Brl 11.3%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA
14.7%
H 57·K 63
Amed Rosario
RHB·4 HR / 63 PA·Brl 12.5%
13.4%
H 64·K 58
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
LHB·3 HR / 113 PA·Brl 4.7%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 1 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
13.4%
H 67·K 72
Giancarlo Stanton
RHB·3 HR / 96 PA·Brl 18.0%
vs SP: 9-for-27 · .333 · 4 HR · 8 K · 31 PA
13.3%
H 63·K 75
Ryan McMahon
LHB·2 HR / 76 PA·Brl 10.0%
vs SP: 2-for-8 · .250 · 2 HR · 4 K · 8 PA
13.0%
H 65·K 69
José Caballero
RHB·3 HR / 106 PA·Brl 2.8%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
12.5%
H 69·K 58
Austin Wells
LHB·2 HR / 84 PA·Brl 5.9%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 3 K · 3 PA
12.3%
H 57·K 49
Cody Bellinger
LHB·3 HR / 120 PA·Brl 7.2%
vs SP: 5-for-19 · .263 · 2 HR · 7 K · 19 PA
12.0%
H 58·K 56
Jasson Domínguez
SHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
12.0%
H 62·K 58
Paul Goldschmidt
RHB·1 HR / 33 PA·Brl 25.0%
vs SP: 1-for-8 · .125 · 0 HR · 3 K · 9 PA
12.0%
H 55·K 58
Home Lineup
Texas Rangers
Josh Jung
RHB·4 HR / 104 PA·Brl 6.7%
12.5%
H 68·K 56
Corey Seager
LHB·6 HR / 121 PA·Brl 13.5%
12.5%
H 63·K 58
Jake Burger
RHB·5 HR / 121 PA·Brl 10.4%
12.4%
H 56·K 74
Evan Carter
LHB·3 HR / 104 PA·Brl 9.5%
11.2%
H 61·K 58
Wyatt Langford
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.1%
H 62·K 57
Alejandro Osuna
LHB·0 HR / 8 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.6%
H 63·K 57
Brandon Nimmo
LHB·4 HR / 132 PA·Brl 11.2%
10.5%
H 61·K 55
Kyle Higashioka
RHB·1 HR / 46 PA·Brl 15.4%
10.5%
H 56·K 62
Joc Pederson
LHB·2 HR / 77 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.5%
H 61·K 72
Andrew McCutchen
RHB·1 HR / 43 PA·Brl 14.3%
10.1%
H 61·K 57
Sam Haggerty
SHB·0 HR / 24 PA·Brl 0.0%
9.5%
H 61·K 57
Danny Jansen
RHB·1 HR / 70 PA·Brl 5.0%
9.0%
H 60·K 65
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.