Matchup · Tuesday, April 28, 2026

San Francisco Giants
at Philadelphia Phillies

6:40 PM ET · 3:40 PM PTCitizens Bank Park, Philadelphiaopen roof

The Headline

Kyle Schwarber enters this game with a 19.1% model-estimated probability of homering at Citizens Bank Park, one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.

Park Factors

LHB HR factor113

RHB HR factor109

Probable Starters

Away Starter · RHP

Tyler Mahle

HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone

Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled

ERA5.26

WHIP1.60

IP25.2

HR/92.10

K/99.1

xwOBA0.371

Barrel%13.5%

Hard-hit%36.5%

Home Starter · LHP

Jesús Luzardo

HR VulnerabilityGood

Contact Quality AllowedAbove average

ERA6.91

WHIP1.54

IP27.1

HR/91.00

K/910.9

xwOBA0.320

Barrel%6.3%

Hard-hit%32.9%

The Lineups

Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.

High

Medium

Low confidence

Away Lineup

San Francisco Giants

vs Jesús Luzardo

Casey Schmitt

RHB·4 HR / 89 PA·Brl 15.9%

vs SP: 1-for-6 · .167 · 0 HR · 0 K · 7 PA

15.1%

H 64·K 64

Heliot Ramos

RHB·3 HR / 104 PA·Brl 16.7%

vs SP: 2-for-8 · .250 · 0 HR · 1 K · 8 PA

13.7%

H 65·K 55

Drew Gilbert

LHB·2 HR / 37 PA·Brl 7.4%

13.7%

H 65·K 66

Eric Haase

RHB·0 HR / 3 PA·Brl 0.0%

12.4%

H 64·K 66

Willy Adames

RHB·3 HR / 117 PA·Brl 10.7%

vs SP: 3-for-14 · .214 · 0 HR · 4 K · 14 PA

12.2%

H 54·K 62

Christian Koss

RHB·0 HR / 12 PA·Brl 0.0%

11.8%

H 63·K 57

Jung Hoo Lee

LHB·2 HR / 109 PA·Brl 3.4%

vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 2 K · 5 PA

11.7%

H 71·K 47

Patrick Bailey

SHB·1 HR / 74 PA·Brl 5.7%

vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 1 HR · 2 K · 4 PA

11.5%

H 57·K 62

Jerar Encarnacion

RHB·0 HR / 27 PA·Brl 4.8%

11.0%

H 63·K 57

Rafael Devers

LHB·2 HR / 117 PA·Brl 8.0%

vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 1 K · 6 PA

10.8%

H 57·K 64

Matt Chapman

RHB·1 HR / 118 PA·Brl 3.6%

vs SP: 2-for-5 · .400 · 0 HR · 0 K · 6 PA

9.6%

H 61·K 49

Luis Arraez

LHB·0 HR / 115 PA·Brl 0.0%

vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA

9.0%

H 70·K 47

Home Lineup

Philadelphia Phillies

vs Tyler Mahle

Kyle Schwarber

LHB·9 HR / 125 PA·Brl 21.0%

vs SP: 6-for-19 · .316 · 2 HR · 6 K · 26 PA

19.1%

H 57·K 70

Bryce Harper

LHB·6 HR / 119 PA·Brl 14.3%

vs SP: 3-for-9 · .333 · 0 HR · 2 K · 11 PA

17.0%

H 65·K 59

Brandon Marsh

LHB·4 HR / 96 PA·Brl 5.6%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA

15.2%

H 71·K 63

Felix Reyes

RHB·1 HR / 18 PA·Brl 0.0%

vs SP: 3-for-8 · .375 · 0 HR · 1 K · 8 PA

13.5%

H 62·K 53

Trea Turner

RHB·3 HR / 125 PA·Brl 4.4%

vs SP: 5-for-16 · .313 · 0 HR · 4 K · 17 PA

13.0%

H 58·K 45

Edmundo Sosa

RHB·1 HR / 40 PA·Brl 6.7%

vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA

13.0%

H 64·K 62

Adolis García

RHB·3 HR / 112 PA·Brl 8.7%

vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA

13.0%

H 66·K 61

Dylan Moore

RHB·0 HR / 14 PA·Brl 0.0%

vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 1 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

12.6%

H 63·K 64

Rafael Marchán

SHB·1 HR / 43 PA·Brl 3.2%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA

12.6%

H 57·K 56

Bryson Stott

LHB·0 HR / 82 PA·Brl 4.7%

vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA

10.7%

H 64·K 48

A Note on These Numbers

HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.