Matchup · Saturday, May 2, 2026
Cleveland Guardians
at Athletics
4:05 PM ET · 1:05 PM PTSutter Health Park, Sacramentoopen roof
The Headline
Nick Kurtz enters this game with a 16.3% model-estimated probability of homering at Sutter Health Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor100
RHB HR factor102
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Slade Cecconi
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA6.23
WHIP1.52
IP30.1
HR/91.80
K/97.4
xwOBA0.367
Barrel%12.2%
Hard-hit%37.8%
Home Starter · LHP
Jacob Lopez
HR VulnerabilityVulnerable
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA5.84
WHIP1.95
IP24.2
HR/91.50
K/96.6
xwOBA0.306
Barrel%4.9%
Hard-hit%26.8%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Cleveland Guardians
vs Jacob Lopez
Daniel Schneemann
LHB·4 HR / 89 PA·Brl 11.5%
15.6%
H 67·K 60
José Ramírez
SHB·6 HR / 143 PA·Brl 11.1%
14.9%
H 59·K 44
Angel Martínez
SHB·5 HR / 104 PA·Brl 10.5%
14.1%
H 61·K 57
Rhys Hoskins
RHB·2 HR / 90 PA·Brl 8.9%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
12.7%
H 63·K 54
Travis Bazzana
LHB·0 HR / 13 PA·Brl 20.0%
12.2%
H 64·K 52
David Fry
RHB·1 HR / 44 PA·Brl 9.5%
12.0%
H 64·K 59
Brayan Rocchio
SHB·3 HR / 118 PA·Brl 2.2%
11.9%
H 67·K 44
Chase DeLauter
LHB·5 HR / 121 PA·Brl 9.0%
11.6%
H 71·K 44
Bo Naylor
LHB·1 HR / 78 PA·Brl 10.0%
11.5%
H 57·K 54
Austin Hedges
RHB·0 HR / 39 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.2%
H 63·K 51
Kyle Manzardo
LHB·1 HR / 102 PA·Brl 7.5%
10.1%
H 62·K 60
Steven Kwan
LHB·1 HR / 135 PA·Brl 1.0%
8.8%
H 64·K 44
Home Lineup
Athletics
Nick Kurtz
LHB·5 HR / 144 PA·Brl 21.3%
vs SP: 3-for-7 · .429 · 0 HR · 0 K · 7 PA
16.3%
H 60·K 57
Shea Langeliers
RHB·8 HR / 141 PA·Brl 14.9%
vs SP: 4-for-6 · .667 · 1 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
16.1%
H 73·K 45
Carlos Cortes
LHB·4 HR / 79 PA·Brl 14.5%
15.5%
H 68·K 45
Brent Rooker
RHB·3 HR / 68 PA·Brl 14.7%
vs SP: 4-for-9 · .444 · 1 HR · 1 K · 9 PA
15.0%
H 57·K 60
Brett Harris
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
13.2%
H 65·K 53
Denzel Clarke
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 0 K · 5 PA
13.1%
H 65·K 53
Max Muncy
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
13.0%
H 65·K 53
Zack Gelof
RHB·1 HR / 40 PA·Brl 3.6%
vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.9%
H 64·K 54
Lawrence Butler
LHB·3 HR / 106 PA·Brl 7.6%
vs SP: 1-for-7 · .143 · 0 HR · 1 K · 7 PA
12.4%
H 63·K 57
Colby Thomas
RHB·0 HR / 15 PA·Brl 0.0%
12.4%
H 65·K 53
Tyler Soderstrom
LHB·3 HR / 129 PA·Brl 12.9%
vs SP: 1-for-9 · .111 · 0 HR · 3 K · 9 PA
12.3%
H 60·K 46
Darell Hernaiz
RHB·1 HR / 49 PA·Brl 0.0%
12.3%
H 66·K 45
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.