Matchup · Saturday, May 2, 2026
Houston Astros
at Boston Red Sox
4:10 PM ET · 1:10 PM PTFenway Park, Bostonopen roof
The Headline
Yordan Alvarez enters this game with a 16.8% model-estimated probability of homering at Fenway Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor95
RHB HR factor99
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Spencer Arrighetti
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA2.00
WHIP1.11
IP18.0
HR/90.50
K/910.5
xwOBA0.350
Barrel%6.8%
Hard-hit%34.1%
Home Starter · LHP
Connelly Early
HR VulnerabilityAverage
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA2.84
WHIP1.20
IP31.2
HR/91.10
K/98.0
xwOBA0.352
Barrel%11.6%
Hard-hit%41.9%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Houston Astros
Yordan Alvarez
LHB·12 HR / 148 PA·Brl 18.1%
16.8%
H 70·K 45
Christian Walker
RHB·7 HR / 135 PA·Brl 12.8%
15.4%
H 71·K 51
Braden Shewmake
LHB·1 HR / 10 PA·Brl 14.3%
13.1%
H 63·K 54
Shay Whitcomb
RHB·1 HR / 13 PA·Brl 25.0%
12.8%
H 63·K 54
Brice Matthews
RHB·2 HR / 68 PA·Brl 8.8%
12.2%
H 68·K 62
Isaac Paredes
RHB·3 HR / 116 PA·Brl 2.5%
12.0%
H 69·K 45
Christian Vázquez
RHB·2 HR / 56 PA·Brl 2.4%
11.8%
H 65·K 47
Carlos Correa
RHB·3 HR / 127 PA·Brl 9.3%
11.8%
H 70·K 50
Nick Allen
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.7%
H 64·K 54
Joey Loperfido
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.6%
H 64·K 54
Cam Smith
RHB·4 HR / 128 PA·Brl 15.1%
11.6%
H 58·K 60
Taylor Trammell
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.5%
H 64·K 54
Home Lineup
Boston Red Sox
Willson Contreras
RHB·7 HR / 132 PA·Brl 18.1%
15.8%
H 67·K 64
Carlos Narváez
RHB·2 HR / 70 PA·Brl 8.7%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.2%
H 60·K 62
Nate Eaton
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.7%
H 63·K 56
Wilyer Abreu
LHB·4 HR / 130 PA·Brl 12.0%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
11.3%
H 70·K 48
Andruw Monasterio
RHB·1 HR / 48 PA·Brl 8.3%
10.8%
H 62·K 51
Jarren Duran
LHB·2 HR / 112 PA·Brl 9.7%
vs SP: 0-for-5 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 6 PA
10.7%
H 56·K 58
Trevor Story
RHB·2 HR / 135 PA·Brl 3.6%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
10.0%
H 60·K 62
Marcelo Mayer
LHB·1 HR / 89 PA·Brl 9.5%
9.5%
H 68·K 47
Caleb Durbin
RHB·1 HR / 114 PA·Brl 1.2%
9.5%
H 60·K 47
Connor Wong
RHB·0 HR / 43 PA·Brl 3.1%
9.4%
H 58·K 49
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
RHB·0 HR / 37 PA·Brl 3.6%
9.4%
H 63·K 54
Roman Anthony
LHB·1 HR / 119 PA·Brl 9.4%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
9.4%
H 62·K 58
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.