Matchup · Saturday, May 2, 2026
Kansas City Royals
at Seattle Mariners
9:40 PM ET · 6:40 PM PTT-Mobile Park, Seattleretractable roof
The Headline
Carter Jensen enters this game with a 14.3% model-estimated probability of homering at T-Mobile Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor92
RHB HR factor89
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Seth Lugo
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA2.63
WHIP1.17
IP37.2
HR/90.20
K/97.4
xwOBA0.328
Barrel%9.3%
Hard-hit%33.6%
Home Starter · RHP
Emerson Hancock
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA2.86
WHIP0.98
IP34.2
HR/91.80
K/98.3
xwOBA0.334
Barrel%12.0%
Hard-hit%39.1%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Kansas City Royals
Carter Jensen
LHB·6 HR / 107 PA·Brl 11.5%
14.3%
H 58·K 55
Jac Caglianone
LHB·3 HR / 102 PA·Brl 16.4%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
14.2%
H 64·K 62
Vinnie Pasquantino
LHB·4 HR / 129 PA·Brl 7.2%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
14.0%
H 61·K 49
Salvador Perez
RHB·5 HR / 131 PA·Brl 10.4%
vs SP: 1-for-6 · .167 · 0 HR · 0 K · 6 PA
13.8%
H 67·K 56
Elias Díaz
RHB·1 HR / 12 PA·Brl 20.0%
vs SP: 2-for-5 · .400 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
13.0%
H 64·K 54
Tyler Tolbert
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
12.0%
H 64·K 54
Jonathan India
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
12.0%
H 64·K 54
Bobby Witt Jr.
RHB·2 HR / 144 PA·Brl 12.0%
vs SP: 2-for-7 · .286 · 1 HR · 1 K · 7 PA
11.8%
H 67·K 47
Kyle Isbel
LHB·3 HR / 87 PA·Brl 5.3%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 0 K · 5 PA
11.3%
H 65·K 56
Michael Massey
LHB·1 HR / 59 PA·Brl 7.7%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
11.1%
H 63·K 55
Maikel Garcia
RHB·3 HR / 131 PA·Brl 8.7%
vs SP: 3-for-7 · .429 · 0 HR · 1 K · 7 PA
10.7%
H 68·K 52
Isaac Collins
SHB·2 HR / 97 PA·Brl 5.9%
10.6%
H 61·K 57
Home Lineup
Seattle Mariners
vs Seth Lugo
Cal Raleigh
SHB·7 HR / 147 PA·Brl 14.0%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
13.9%
H 56·K 55
Luke Raley
LHB·5 HR / 93 PA·Brl 19.6%
vs SP: 2-for-2 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
12.6%
H 64·K 61
Josh Naylor
LHB·4 HR / 130 PA·Brl 7.5%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 1 HR · 0 K · 6 PA
12.0%
H 65·K 48
Rob Refsnyder
RHB·2 HR / 42 PA·Brl 10.3%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA
11.7%
H 63·K 52
Will Wilson
RHB·1 HR / 6 PA·Brl 25.0%
11.6%
H 64·K 53
Dominic Canzone
LHB·3 HR / 76 PA·Brl 17.6%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA
11.3%
H 65·K 58
Julio Rodríguez
RHB·4 HR / 144 PA·Brl 6.3%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA
11.1%
H 68·K 51
Connor Joe
RHB·1 HR / 17 PA·Brl 11.1%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
11.0%
H 64·K 53
Brendan Donovan
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
10.8%
H 64·K 53
Randy Arozarena
RHB·3 HR / 138 PA·Brl 6.9%
vs SP: 0-for-9 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 9 PA
10.3%
H 67·K 60
J.P. Crawford
LHB·2 HR / 106 PA·Brl 10.9%
vs SP: 3-for-7 · .429 · 0 HR · 1 K · 7 PA
10.1%
H 62·K 44
Cole Young
LHB·3 HR / 130 PA·Brl 9.3%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
9.6%
H 71·K 45
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.