Matchup · Saturday, May 2, 2026
Texas Rangers
at Detroit Tigers
7:15 PM ET · 4:15 PM PTComerica Park, Detroitopen roof
The Headline
Spencer Torkelson enters this game with a 15.5% model-estimated probability of homering at Comerica Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor92
RHB HR factor94
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Kumar Rocker
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA3.38
WHIP1.31
IP26.2
HR/90.70
K/97.4
xwOBA0.330
Barrel%7.3%
Hard-hit%47.6%
Home Starter · RHP
Keider Montero
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA4.00
WHIP1.00
IP27.0
HR/90.70
K/97.7
xwOBA0.246
Barrel%6.3%
Hard-hit%44.3%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Texas Rangers
Josh Jung
RHB·4 HR / 118 PA·Brl 6.0%
12.7%
H 71·K 45
Corey Seager
LHB·6 HR / 135 PA·Brl 13.9%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
12.4%
H 57·K 56
Wyatt Langford
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
11.4%
H 63·K 53
Jake Burger
RHB·5 HR / 133 PA·Brl 9.5%
11.3%
H 60·K 60
Kyle Higashioka
RHB·1 HR / 50 PA·Brl 13.3%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.7%
H 58·K 60
Brandon Nimmo
LHB·4 HR / 143 PA·Brl 10.2%
10.5%
H 71·K 48
Danny Jansen
RHB·2 HR / 78 PA·Brl 4.5%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
10.5%
H 62·K 62
Joc Pederson
LHB·2 HR / 89 PA·Brl 3.9%
10.5%
H 57·K 55
Evan Carter
LHB·3 HR / 113 PA·Brl 8.8%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.3%
H 61·K 53
Andrew McCutchen
RHB·1 HR / 45 PA·Brl 12.0%
vs SP: 2-for-4 · .500 · 2 HR · 0 K · 5 PA
10.3%
H 62·K 53
Alejandro Osuna
LHB·0 HR / 17 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
10.3%
H 64·K 53
Sam Haggerty
SHB·0 HR / 28 PA·Brl 0.0%
9.8%
H 62·K 53
Home Lineup
Detroit Tigers
vs Kumar Rocker
Spencer Torkelson
RHB·5 HR / 124 PA·Brl 14.9%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA
15.5%
H 67·K 59
Kerry Carpenter
LHB·6 HR / 101 PA·Brl 13.2%
14.1%
H 61·K 59
Dillon Dingler
RHB·5 HR / 110 PA·Brl 17.6%
13.5%
H 64·K 46
Jahmai Jones
RHB·2 HR / 39 PA·Brl 21.7%
13.5%
H 64·K 60
Riley Greene
LHB·4 HR / 137 PA·Brl 15.4%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
13.2%
H 64·K 59
Hao-Yu Lee
RHB·1 HR / 31 PA·Brl 18.8%
12.4%
H 64·K 60
Wenceel Pérez
SHB·2 HR / 54 PA·Brl 12.2%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
12.3%
H 62·K 45
Javier Báez
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.3%
H 64·K 53
Jace Jung
LHB·0 HR / 2 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.1%
H 64·K 53
Kevin McGonigle
LHB·2 HR / 141 PA·Brl 13.1%
10.4%
H 65·K 45
Jake Rogers
RHB·0 HR / 34 PA·Brl 13.6%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
9.9%
H 60·K 58
Matt Vierling
RHB·1 HR / 74 PA·Brl 3.8%
9.8%
H 59·K 45
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.