Matchup · Saturday, May 2, 2026

Toronto Blue Jays
at Minnesota Twins

2:10 PM ET · 11:10 AM PTTarget Field, Minneapolisopen roof

The Headline

Byron Buxton enters this game with a 16.0% model-estimated probability of homering at Target Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.

Park Factors

LHB HR factor102

RHB HR factor99

Probable Starters

Away Starter · RHP

Dylan Cease

HR VulnerabilityElite

Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression

ERA2.87

WHIP1.37

IP31.1

HR/90.00

K/914.1

xwOBA0.287

Barrel%1.4%

Hard-hit%35.7%

Home Starter · LHP

Connor Prielipp

HR VulnerabilityElite

Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled

ERA4.00

WHIP0.89

IP9.0

HR/90.00

K/911.0

xwOBA0.245

Barrel%13.6%

Hard-hit%45.5%

The Lineups

Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.

High

Medium

Low confidence

Away Lineup

Toronto Blue Jays

vs Connor Prielipp

Kazuma Okamoto

RHB·7 HR / 128 PA·Brl 12.5%

14.5%

H 57·K 60

Jesús Sánchez

LHB·4 HR / 106 PA·Brl 9.2%

13.0%

H 58·K 50

Daulton Varsho

LHB·4 HR / 114 PA·Brl 6.4%

12.9%

H 63·K 57

Brandon Valenzuela

SHB·2 HR / 42 PA·Brl 7.7%

12.8%

H 61·K 64

George Springer

RHB·2 HR / 73 PA·Brl 8.9%

LHB·0 HR / 11 PA·Brl 0.0%

11.3%

H 64·K 55

Myles Straw

RHB·1 HR / 53 PA·Brl 4.5%

11.0%

H 62·K 47

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

RHB·2 HR / 135 PA·Brl 12.2%

10.9%

H 72·K 48

Davis Schneider

RHB·1 HR / 61 PA·Brl 13.3%

10.7%

H 60·K 61

Andrés Giménez

LHB·3 HR / 115 PA·Brl 3.3%

10.5%

H 58·K 51

Lenyn Sosa

RHB·0 HR / 67 PA·Brl 4.0%

9.5%

H 64·K 52

Home Lineup

Minnesota Twins

vs Dylan Cease

Byron Buxton

RHB·9 HR / 139 PA·Brl 15.9%

vs SP: 1-for-8 · .125 · 0 HR · 3 K · 11 PA

16.0%

H 67·K 64

Tristan Gray

LHB·3 HR / 58 PA·Brl 11.4%

13.1%

H 62·K 69

Ryan Jeffers

RHB·4 HR / 101 PA·Brl 14.3%

vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 2 K · 6 PA

12.5%

H 69·K 54

Brooks Lee

SHB·5 HR / 112 PA·Brl 5.1%

12.0%

H 62·K 56

Kody Clemens

LHB·3 HR / 82 PA·Brl 14.6%

vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 3 K · 4 PA

12.0%

H 62·K 64

Royce Lewis

RHB·3 HR / 80 PA·Brl 13.3%

vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA

10.7%

H 56·K 64

James Outman

LHB·0 HR / 33 PA·Brl 0.0%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 2 PA

10.2%

H 60·K 61

Matt Wallner

LHB·3 HR / 109 PA·Brl 9.3%

vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 8 PA

10.0%

H 55·K 66

Trevor Larnach

LHB·1 HR / 85 PA·Brl 9.6%

vs SP: 3-for-16 · .188 · 0 HR · 8 K · 17 PA

9.9%

H 65·K 59

Austin Martin

RHB·1 HR / 91 PA·Brl 3.8%

9.6%

H 65·K 53

Josh Bell

SHB·3 HR / 131 PA·Brl 10.1%

vs SP: 5-for-14 · .357 · 0 HR · 4 K · 16 PA

9.5%

H 58·K 52

Victor Caratini

SHB·1 HR / 97 PA·Brl 4.5%

vs SP: 0-for-6 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 6 PA

9.5%

H 56·K 57

A Note on These Numbers

HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.