Matchup · Tuesday, May 5, 2026
Baltimore Orioles
at Miami Marlins
6:40 PM ET · 3:40 PM PTloanDepot park, Miamiretractable roof
The Headline
Pete Alonso enters this game with a 14.3% model-estimated probability of homering at loanDepot park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor91
RHB HR factor92
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Chris Bassitt
HR VulnerabilityGood
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA5.46
WHIP1.86
IP28.0
HR/91.00
K/95.5
xwOBA0.355
Barrel%3.0%
Hard-hit%32.7%
Home Starter · RHP
Sandy Alcantara
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA3.04
WHIP1.16
IP47.1
HR/90.80
K/95.9
xwOBA0.285
Barrel%4.8%
Hard-hit%34.9%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Baltimore Orioles
Pete Alonso
RHB·6 HR / 150 PA·Brl 11.1%
vs SP: 6-for-40 · .150 · 1 HR · 10 K · 45 PA
14.3%
H 67·K 52
Samuel Basallo
LHB·5 HR / 104 PA·Brl 9.5%
13.0%
H 66·K 52
Gunnar Henderson
LHB·9 HR / 158 PA·Brl 10.9%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
13.0%
H 59·K 58
Adley Rutschman
SHB·4 HR / 81 PA·Brl 6.6%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
12.8%
H 60·K 42
Coby Mayo
RHB·3 HR / 94 PA·Brl 6.9%
12.5%
H 62·K 58
Jeremiah Jackson
RHB·6 HR / 116 PA·Brl 8.3%
11.3%
H 62·K 47
Johnathan Rodríguez
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.0%
H 64·K 50
Sam Huff
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.0%
H 64·K 50
Leody Taveras
SHB·2 HR / 90 PA·Brl 5.4%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
10.8%
H 65·K 47
Tyler O'Neill
RHB·1 HR / 54 PA·Brl 3.1%
vs SP: 1-for-10 · .100 · 0 HR · 3 K · 10 PA
10.7%
H 63·K 51
Weston Wilson
RHB·0 HR / 21 PA·Brl 9.1%
10.1%
H 64·K 50
Dylan Beavers
LHB·2 HR / 99 PA·Brl 6.3%
10.0%
H 63·K 52
Home Lineup
Miami Marlins
Esteury Ruiz
RHB·2 HR / 15 PA·Brl 25.0%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
14.2%
H 66·K 51
Liam Hicks
LHB·7 HR / 116 PA·Brl 7.6%
13.9%
H 65·K 42
Heriberto Hernández
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.5%
H 66·K 51
Connor Norby
RHB·3 HR / 119 PA·Brl 10.6%
10.8%
H 64·K 59
Christopher Morel
RHB·0 HR / 16 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-6 · .000 · 0 HR · 3 K · 6 PA
10.8%
H 66·K 51
Leo Jiménez
RHB·0 HR / 21 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.3%
H 65·K 51
Graham Pauley
LHB·1 HR / 77 PA·Brl 3.8%
10.0%
H 63·K 51
Owen Caissie
LHB·2 HR / 103 PA·Brl 11.5%
9.9%
H 64·K 59
Kyle Stowers
LHB·0 HR / 57 PA·Brl 3.0%
9.6%
H 64·K 51
Otto Lopez
RHB·3 HR / 145 PA·Brl 9.5%
9.5%
H 74·K 49
Xavier Edwards
SHB·2 HR / 149 PA·Brl 5.4%
9.2%
H 71·K 42
Agustín Ramírez
RHB·0 HR / 129 PA·Brl 4.7%
9.2%
H 63·K 52
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.