Matchup · Tuesday, May 5, 2026

Minnesota Twins
at Washington Nationals

6:45 PM ET · 3:45 PM PTNationals Park, Washingtonopen roof

The Headline

James Wood enters this game with a 16.8% model-estimated probability of homering at Nationals Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.

Park Factors

LHB HR factor102

RHB HR factor101

Probable Starters

Away Starter · RHP

Taj Bradley

HR VulnerabilityAverage

Contact Quality AllowedLeague average

ERA2.85

WHIP1.22

IP41.0

HR/91.10

K/99.7

xwOBA0.317

Barrel%9.7%

Hard-hit%46.9%

Home Starter · RHP

Cade Cavalli

HR VulnerabilityElite

Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression

ERA3.82

WHIP1.66

IP30.2

HR/90.30

K/911.2

xwOBA0.309

Barrel%5.7%

Hard-hit%36.8%

The Lineups

Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.

High

Medium

Low confidence

Away Lineup

Minnesota Twins

vs Cade Cavalli

Byron Buxton

RHB·10 HR / 147 PA·Brl 18.4%

16.4%

H 68·K 59

Tristan Gray

LHB·3 HR / 61 PA·Brl 10.8%

13.3%

H 67·K 65

Ryan Jeffers

RHB·4 HR / 105 PA·Brl 14.3%

12.5%

H 69·K 51

Kody Clemens

LHB·3 HR / 90 PA·Brl 17.0%

11.3%

H 63·K 60

Brooks Lee

SHB·5 HR / 119 PA·Brl 4.7%

11.3%

H 66·K 57

Royce Lewis

RHB·3 HR / 84 PA·Brl 12.2%

10.9%

H 57·K 63

James Outman

LHB·0 HR / 33 PA·Brl 0.0%

10.3%

H 62·K 58

Matt Wallner

LHB·3 HR / 117 PA·Brl 9.8%

10.1%

H 56·K 60

Austin Martin

RHB·1 HR / 95 PA·Brl 3.4%

9.8%

H 70·K 53

Josh Bell

SHB·3 HR / 135 PA·Brl 10.5%

9.7%

H 58·K 49

Victor Caratini

SHB·1 HR / 101 PA·Brl 4.3%

9.7%

H 58·K 58

Trevor Larnach

LHB·1 HR / 93 PA·Brl 8.6%

9.2%

H 68·K 56

Home Lineup

Washington Nationals

vs Taj Bradley

James Wood

LHB·10 HR / 167 PA·Brl 26.3%

16.8%

H 60·K 64

CJ Abrams

LHB·8 HR / 143 PA·Brl 11.6%

vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA

14.0%

H 71·K 57

Curtis Mead

RHB·4 HR / 81 PA·Brl 10.3%

vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA

13.8%

H 62·K 53

Joey Wiemer

RHB·3 HR / 66 PA·Brl 12.1%

13.2%

H 64·K 56

Brady House

RHB·4 HR / 128 PA·Brl 11.5%

LHB·3 HR / 151 PA·Brl 4.5%

12.0%

H 59·K 58

José Tena

LHB·1 HR / 60 PA·Brl 2.7%

11.5%

H 63·K 64

Keibert Ruiz

SHB·1 HR / 65 PA·Brl 5.6%

9.9%

H 59·K 50

Luis García Jr.

LHB·1 HR / 112 PA·Brl 5.6%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA

9.8%

H 58·K 54

Drew Millas

SHB·0 HR / 61 PA·Brl 2.6%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 2 PA

9.6%

H 61·K 62

Jorbit Vivas

LHB·0 HR / 82 PA·Brl 1.6%

9.4%

H 63·K 49

A Note on These Numbers

HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.