Matchup · Tuesday, May 5, 2026
Texas Rangers
at New York Yankees
7:05 PM ET · 4:05 PM PTYankee Stadium, Bronxopen roof
The Headline
Ben Rice enters this game with a 20.0% model-estimated probability of homering at Yankee Stadium, one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor120
RHB HR factor105
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Jacob deGrom
HR VulnerabilityAverage
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA2.01
WHIP0.96
IP31.1
HR/91.20
K/911.5
xwOBA0.286
Barrel%13.2%
Hard-hit%40.8%
Home Starter · RHP
Elmer Rodríguez
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA4.50
WHIP2.00
IP4.0
HR/90.00
K/96.8
xwOBA0.384
Barrel%8.3%
Hard-hit%33.3%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Texas Rangers
Corey Seager
LHB·6 HR / 143 PA·Brl 16.1%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
14.3%
H 61·K 58
Josh Jung
RHB·4 HR / 126 PA·Brl 5.2%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
13.1%
H 72·K 45
Jake Burger
RHB·6 HR / 141 PA·Brl 10.9%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
12.8%
H 57·K 62
Brandon Nimmo
LHB·4 HR / 147 PA·Brl 9.8%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
12.8%
H 72·K 50
Joc Pederson
LHB·2 HR / 93 PA·Brl 3.4%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.7%
H 57·K 53
Wyatt Langford
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
12.6%
H 64·K 54
Evan Carter
LHB·3 HR / 121 PA·Brl 7.9%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.5%
H 56·K 55
Alejandro Osuna
LHB·0 HR / 22 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-0 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.2%
H 64·K 54
Kyle Higashioka
RHB·1 HR / 54 PA·Brl 12.1%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
11.7%
H 58·K 59
Danny Jansen
RHB·2 HR / 81 PA·Brl 6.4%
11.6%
H 62·K 62
Andrew McCutchen
RHB·1 HR / 48 PA·Brl 10.7%
11.3%
H 63·K 62
Sam Haggerty
SHB·0 HR / 28 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.8%
H 63·K 54
Home Lineup
New York Yankees
vs Jacob deGrom
Ben Rice
LHB·12 HR / 134 PA·Brl 20.5%
vs SP: 0-for-6 · .000 · 0 HR · 3 K · 6 PA
20.0%
H 71·K 56
Aaron Judge
RHB·14 HR / 155 PA·Brl 27.8%
vs SP: 2-for-10 · .200 · 0 HR · 3 K · 14 PA
18.6%
H 66·K 60
Cody Bellinger
LHB·5 HR / 147 PA·Brl 7.8%
vs SP: 6-for-22 · .273 · 2 HR · 8 K · 22 PA
17.6%
H 66·K 46
Trent Grisham
LHB·5 HR / 133 PA·Brl 14.1%
vs SP: 0-for-6 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 6 PA
15.9%
H 60·K 50
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
LHB·3 HR / 139 PA·Brl 6.0%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 1 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
15.8%
H 56·K 57
Ryan McMahon
LHB·2 HR / 94 PA·Brl 11.5%
vs SP: 2-for-10 · .200 · 2 HR · 5 K · 10 PA
15.1%
H 61·K 62
Giancarlo Stanton
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 9-for-27 · .333 · 4 HR · 8 K · 31 PA
14.5%
H 59·K 55
Amed Rosario
RHB·4 HR / 67 PA·Brl 12.2%
14.2%
H 63·K 55
Austin Wells
LHB·3 HR / 100 PA·Brl 4.8%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 3 K · 5 PA
14.2%
H 60·K 49
José Caballero
RHB·4 HR / 128 PA·Brl 3.4%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
13.0%
H 58·K 51
Jasson Domínguez
SHB·1 HR / 24 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-5 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 5 PA
12.8%
H 63·K 57
Max Schuemann
RHB·0 HR / 2 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.4%
H 62·K 58
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.