Matchup · Thursday, May 7, 2026
New York Mets
at Colorado Rockies
8:40 PM ET · 5:40 PM PTCoors Field, Denveropen roof
The Headline
Hunter Goodman enters this game with a 20.0% model-estimated probability of homering at Coors Field, one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor118
RHB HR factor122
Altitude5,200 ft
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Freddy Peralta
HR Vulnerability—
Contact Quality Allowed—
ERA—
WHIP—
IP—
HR/9—
K/9—
xwOBA—
Barrel%undefined%
Hard-hit%undefined%
Home Starter · RHP
Michael Lorenzen
HR Vulnerability—
Contact Quality Allowed—
ERA—
WHIP—
IP—
HR/9—
K/9—
xwOBA—
Barrel%undefined%
Hard-hit%undefined%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
New York Mets
Mark Vientos
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 4-for-5 · .800 · 1 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
18.1%
H 67·K 54
Juan Soto
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 2-for-12 · .167 · 0 HR · 1 K · 12 PA
16.3%
H 64·K 44
Tommy Pham
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 3-for-12 · .250 · 1 HR · 5 K · 12 PA
15.4%
H 64·K 49
MJ Melendez
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 1-for-10 · .100 · 0 HR · 3 K · 11 PA
14.7%
H 64·K 57
Eric Wagaman
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
14.5%
H 66·K 52
Vidal Bruján
SHB·0 HR / 0 PA
14.4%
H 66·K 52
Hayden Senger
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
14.4%
H 66·K 52
Ronny Mauricio
SHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 2 K · 4 PA
14.3%
H 66·K 51
Jorge Polanco
SHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
14.3%
H 65·K 50
Francisco Lindor
SHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 3-for-15 · .200 · 0 HR · 1 K · 15 PA
14.0%
H 63·K 49
Carson Benge
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
13.9%
H 64·K 48
Luis Robert Jr.
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 3-for-16 · .188 · 0 HR · 4 K · 18 PA
13.7%
H 63·K 48
Home Lineup
Colorado Rockies
Hunter Goodman
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 1 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
20.0%
H 57·K 64
Mickey Moniak
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 1-for-7 · .143 · 0 HR · 2 K · 7 PA
18.8%
H 69·K 57
TJ Rumfield
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
13.4%
H 63·K 48
Edouard Julien
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.5%
H 63·K 64
Jordan Beck
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.5%
H 60·K 59
Brenton Doyle
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 2-for-10 · .200 · 1 HR · 6 K · 11 PA
12.2%
H 60·K 63
Ezequiel Tovar
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 5-for-12 · .417 · 2 HR · 3 K · 14 PA
12.1%
H 59·K 60
Tyler Freeman
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 2-for-5 · .400 · 0 HR · 2 K · 5 PA
11.7%
H 63·K 47
Brett Sullivan
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.6%
H 64·K 51
Kyle Karros
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
11.2%
H 65·K 55
Troy Johnston
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
10.9%
H 68·K 55
Willi Castro
SHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 1-for-7 · .143 · 0 HR · 3 K · 7 PA
10.7%
H 60·K 60
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.