Matchup · Friday, April 17, 2026
San Francisco Giants
at Washington Nationals
6:45 PM ET · 3:45 PM PTNationals Park, Washingtonopen roof
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Logan Webb
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA5.40
WHIP1.40
IP30.0
HR/90.60
K/98.1
xwOBA0.324
Barrel%5.5%
Hard-hit%46.6%
Home Starter · RHP
Zack Littell
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA7.11
WHIP1.74
IP19.0
HR/93.30
K/96.6
xwOBA0.361
Barrel%9.8%
Hard-hit%49.0%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
San Francisco Giants
vs Zack Littell
Willy Adames
RHB·3 HR / 84 PA·Brl 11.5%
vs SP: 1-for-6 · .167 · 0 HR · 2 K · 7 PA
—
Casey Schmitt
RHB·2 HR / 59 PA·Brl 8.3%
—
Rafael Devers
LHB·2 HR / 84 PA·Brl 9.8%
vs SP: 3-for-12 · .250 · 1 HR · 5 K · 15 PA
—
Drew Gilbert
LHB·1 HR / 9 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
Heliot Ramos
RHB·1 HR / 73 PA·Brl 4.9%
—
Jung Hoo Lee
LHB·1 HR / 78 PA·Brl 1.8%
—
Matt Chapman
RHB·1 HR / 84 PA·Brl 5.1%
vs SP: 3-for-10 · .300 · 1 HR · 3 K · 11 PA
—
Christian Koss
RHB·0 HR / 7 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
Daniel Susac
RHB·0 HR / 22 PA·Brl 6.7%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
—
Jerar Encarnacion
RHB·0 HR / 24 PA·Brl 5.0%
—
Luis Arraez
LHB·0 HR / 80 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
Patrick Bailey
SHB·0 HR / 50 PA·Brl 5.1%
—
Home Lineup
Washington Nationals
vs Logan Webb
James Wood
LHB·6 HR / 98 PA·Brl 25.0%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 3 K · 6 PA
—
CJ Abrams
LHB·6 HR / 81 PA·Brl 13.2%
vs SP: 2-for-14 · .143 · 1 HR · 3 K · 14 PA
—
Joey Wiemer
RHB·2 HR / 46 PA·Brl 8.7%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
—
Brady House
RHB·2 HR / 80 PA·Brl 8.3%
—
Jacob Young
RHB·2 HR / 57 PA·Brl 6.8%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
—
Daylen Lile
LHB·1 HR / 91 PA·Brl 2.9%
—
Curtis Mead
RHB·1 HR / 41 PA·Brl 6.5%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
—
Keibert Ruiz
SHB·1 HR / 41 PA·Brl 6.3%
vs SP: 3-for-8 · .375 · 0 HR · 1 K · 11 PA
—
Luis García Jr.
LHB·1 HR / 66 PA·Brl 7.8%
vs SP: 1-for-7 · .143 · 0 HR · 1 K · 8 PA
—
Jorbit Vivas
LHB·0 HR / 49 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
José Tena
LHB·0 HR / 33 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
Drew Millas
SHB·0 HR / 33 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.